ITC Share Price: 2026 Se Cigarette Par Mega Tax Hike! Kya Hoga Players Ka Haal?

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AuthorKavya Nair|Published at:
ITC Share Price: 2026 Se Cigarette Par Mega Tax Hike! Kya Hoga Players Ka Haal?
Overview

Bhai log, ITC ke cigarette business ke liye ek badi khabar hai. Feb **2026** se cigarette par tax bahut badh jayega. Is wajah se company ko price badhana padega, jisse volumes par asar pad sakta hai. Brokerages bhi is par nazar rakhe hue hain.

Dekho, February 2026 se cigarettes par indirect taxes mein tagda izafa hone wala hai. Iske chalte ITC Ltd. ek mushkil phase mein aa gaya hai. Company ko EBIT (earning before interest and tax) maintain karne ke liye cigarette prices mein kaafi badi hike karni padegi. Lekin Kotak Institutional Equities ke mutabik, ITC ne prices thoda kam badhaye hain taaki volumes ko bachaya ja sake. Matlab, abhi thoda profit kam kamao par market share mat khona. Par analysts ko lagta hai ki ye strategy risky ho sakti hai, khaas kar jab competition bhi badh raha hai.

Foreign brokerage CLSA ne ITC par 'Outperform' rating to rakhi hai, par price target 24% se kam karke ₹367 kar diya hai. Unka kehna hai ki EBIT ko same rakhne ke liye company ko lagbhag 33% price badhana pad sakta hai, jisse volumes kam ho sakte hain aur FY27 mein cigarette EBIT gir sakta hai. Doosri taraf, Kotak Institutional Equities ne 'Reduce' rating aur ₹338 ka target maintain kiya hai. Unko lagta hai ki cigarette EBIT mein 30-33% ki girawat aa sakti hai. Kotak ka kehna hai ki ITC ne jo 25% ki blended price hike ki hai, woh volumes ko protect karne ke liye hai, jabki tax offset karne ke liye 35% ki hike chahiye thi. Aur baat yeh hai ki Godfrey Phillips India jaise competitors bhi prices badha rahe hain, aur ITC abhi unke saath match karne mein cautious hai, jisse lagta hai ki premium segment mein market share ka dar hai.

ITC ne jo strategy apnai hai, woh shayad FY2014 se FY2016 ke time ko yaad karke ho. Tab bhi excise duty badhi thi aur ITC ne mid-teen price hikes ki thi, jiske baad volumes 15% se zyada gir gaye the. Toh ab jab February 1, 2026 se naya tax regime aa raha hai (40% GST plus other duties), toh shayad waisa hi kuch ho sakta hai.

Godfrey Phillips India ka P/E ratio lagbhag 32.94x hai, aur VST Industries ka 17.83x hai. ITC ka P/E abhi 20.01x ke aas paas hai. Isse pata chalta hai ki ITC apne competitors ke comparison mein thoda discount par hai, par market cigarette business ki challenges ko price mein discount kar rahi hai.

Broader consumer staples companies mein toh Q4 FY26 se demand badhne ki ummeed hai, par tobacco sector ke liye ye tax hikes ek bada headwind hain. ITC ka stock is saal ab tak lagbhag 11% gir chuka hai aur pichhle saal se 18-20% down hai. MarketsMOJO ne toh February 9, 2026 ko 'Sell' rating di hai, fundamentals strong hone ke bawajood.

CLSA ko FY28 mein recovery ki ummeed hai agar tax aur nahi badhe toh. Overall 39 analysts mein se 15 'Buy', 9 'Sell', aur 15 'Hold' keh rahe hain. Average target price lagbhag ₹433 hai, jo current levels se 30% ka upside dikhata hai. Par latest valuation changes ko dekh kar ye target bhi adjust ho sakta hai.

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