Whalesbook
Sarkaar ne February 2026 mein jo excise duty hike ki thi na, uska asar ab dikhne laga hai. ITC aur Godfrey Phillips India ne apne kuch pocket pack cigarette brands ki prices thodi badha di hain. Jaise, Marlboro ka pocket pack ab ₹85 ka ho gaya hai, pehle ₹70 tha. Aur Gold Flake Superstar bhi ₹79 ka hai, jo pehle ₹70 mein aata tha. Company ka target toh ye hai ki duty badhne se jo expense bada hai, use recover kar payein. Lekin scene yeh hai ki aajkal inflation ki wajah se log already bahut carefully kharch kar rahe hain. Zaroori cheezon par hi focus hai. Toh aise mein, prices badhane ka asar ultā ho sakta hai, matlab profit bachane ke chakkar mein margins aur kam ho sakte hain. Jo log price-sensitive hain, woh ya toh saste brands pe switch kar lenge ya phir chala jayenge illegal cigarette market mein.
Yeh price hike Godfrey Phillips aur ITC dono ke liye kaafi important hai, kyunki ye brands unke total sales ka 8% se 12% tak contribute karte hain. Aisa pehle bhi hua hai ki tax badhne ke baad companies ne prices badhai ho, par abhi market ka mood alag hai. Maharashtra mein dealers toh keh rahe hain ki April mein cigarette sales volume mein 20% tak ki giraavat aa sakti hai, khaas kar premium king-size cigarettes mein. Yahan per cigarette cost ₹25-₹28 ho gaya hai, jo pehle ₹20 ke aas paas tha. Analysts ka andaza hai ki FY27 ke Q1 mein poori industry ke profit margins 8% tak gir sakte hain.
Aisa nahi hai ki sirf tobacco companies hi pressure mein hain. Poora FMCG sector toh theek hai, par joh non-essential cheezein hain, wahan log kharch kam kar rahe hain. Deloitte bhi keh raha hai ki Indian consumers ab bahut soch samajh kar kharch kar rahe hain, essentials ko priority de rahe hain aur badi kharidari postpone kar rahe hain. Toh jab aap mehngi cheezon ke prices aur badhate ho, toh consumers usse easily accept nahi karte. Piche jab bhi excise duty badhi hai, toh ITC aur Godfrey Phillips jaise stocks mein thodi girawat aati thi kyunki investors adjust karte the. Company ne hamesha tax ko price hike se cover kiya hai, par abhi ki economic situation mein sales loss aur illegal trade badhne ka risk dikh raha hai. Isi wajah se analysts predict kar rahe hain ki industry ke profit margins 8% tak kam ho sakte hain FY27 ke pehle quarter mein, kyunki costs badh rahi hain, sales slow hai, aur log saste options choose kar rahe hain.
Ab sabse bada risk dono companies ke liye ye hai ki kya woh prices effectively badha paayenge, jabki naye government rules hain aur logo ki shopping habits bhi change ho rahi hai. February 2026 mein jo duty hike hui thi, uske baad ITC ke stock mein bhi early 2026 mein kaafi girawat aayi thi. Godfrey Phillips toh ITC se zyada vulnerable hai, kyunki uski business cigarette par hi zyada depend karti hai. ITC ke paas toh food, hotels jaise alag alag businesses bhi hain. Toh Godfrey Phillips ke liye risk kaafi zyada hai agar tobacco sales kam hui toh. Analysts ke views bhi alag alag hain: ITC ko mostly 'Neutral' ya 'Hold' ratings mil rahi hain, price targets bhi vary kar rahe hain. Lekin Godfrey Phillips ke liye toh kuch analysts ne 'Strong Sell' ki recommendation di hai, jismein price targets suggest kar rahe hain ki stock gir sakta hai. Ye difference dikhata hai ki investors kitne worried hain Godfrey Phillips ki capacity ko lekar ki woh higher taxes aur loss of sales volume ko kaise handle karenge, khaas kar jab unka P/E ratio ITC se zyada hai (23-27) compared to ITC's (11-17). Current economic climate mein ye danger aur badh jaata hai ki log saste ya illegal cigarettes ki taraf shift ho jayenge, jisse major companies ki sales aur profits kam hongi.
Overall outlook dekhein toh ITC ke liye analysts ke views mixed hain. Kuch ko lagta hai ki uske diverse businesses aur dividends ki wajah se stock badh sakta hai, jabki kuch ne tax increase ke baad targets kam kar diye hain. Godfrey Phillips ka future thoda mushkil lag raha hai, jahan analysts 'Strong Sell' recommend kar rahe hain, mainly tobacco par strong reliance ki wajah se. Ab dekhte hain ki dono companies price hike ko sales volume ke saath kaise balance karti hain, aur overall economy consumers ke kharch ko kaise affect karti hai. FMCG sector ke long-term prospects toh theek hain, par tobacco segment abhi regulatory challenges aur careful consumer choices ke beech mein navigate kar raha hai.