Whalesbook
Toh hua yun ki ITC ne Gold Flake aur Classic jaise premium cigarettes ke prices mein lagbhag 30% ka hike kiya hai. Par ye hike utna bada nahi hai jitna Nomura ko expect tha; woh log 35-40% tak ka increase dekh rahe the.
Ab Nomura wale keh rahe hain ki agar company ne baad mein aur price increase nahi kiya toh cigarette business ke EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Tax) growth mein 20% tak ki kami aa sakti hai. Pehle unka estimate 15% decline ka tha. Nomura ko lagta hai ki ITC price increase ko thoda dheere dheere laa rahi hai taaki sales volume pe ekdum se zada impact na ho, par abhi ke rates se EBIT margins par pressure definitely padega. Isliye, Nomura ne apna 'Reduce' rating aur ₹318 ka target price maintain rakha hai. Unka prediction hai ki FY28 tak EPS CAGR flat hi rahega.
Is beech, ITC apni 'shrinkflation' wali strategy bhi chal raha hai. Matlab, ye log chhote pack sizes laa rahe hain jinmein maal kam hoga par price ya toh same rahega ya thoda kam badhega. For example, Gold Flake Deluxe ka 64mm wala pack ab ₹94 mein 10 sticks mein mil raha hai, jo pehle wale bade pack ke price jaisa hi hai. Dusri taraf, ek Gold Flake variant ka price 32% badha hai aur ab ye ₹125 mein 10 sticks mil raha hai, pehle ye ₹95 tha.
Market mein competition bhi bohat tez hai. Godfrey Phillips India ne Stellar Shift brand par aur bhi bade price hikes kiye hain, jo ab ₹19 per stick mil raha hai, matlab 90% badha hai. Nomura ne ye bhi warn kiya hai ki illegal aur imported cigarettes jo ₹10-₹15 mein mil rahe hain, woh asli brands ko takkar de rahe hain. Price increase ke baad, Godfrey Phillips ka Stellar Shift ab seedha ITC ke Classic Connect se compete karega, jiska price 30% badh kar ₹19.5 per stick ho gaya hai.
Aaj dopahar tak, ITC ke shares 0.39% girkar ₹321.3 par trade kar rahe the, jabki Godfrey Phillips India ke shares 0.62% badh kar ₹2196.85 par pahunche. Sensex aaj flat hi tha.