Whalesbook
Profit badha, Revenue bhi, toh gira kyun?
Hindustan Unilever (HUL) ke liye aaj ka din thoda mixed raha. Ek taraf toh unka Q4 FY26 ka net profit 21.4% badhkar ₹2,992 Crore ho gaya aur revenue bhi 7.6% badh kar ₹16,351 Crore par pahunch gaya. Volume growth bhi 6% raha, jo ki 15 quarters mein sabse acha hai! Lekin investors ne is positive news par zyada dhyan nahi diya, balki company ke price hike plan par focus kiya. CEO Priya Nair ne bataya ki Middle East crisis jaise reasons se crude-based commodities ke daam badh rahe hain, isliye inhe prices 2-5% tak badhani padengi. Yeh price hike plan investors ko future margins ko lekar thoda nervous kar raha hai.
Operational Performance acchi, lekin margins tight
Sabse achi baat yeh rahi ki Home Care mein 9%, Beauty & Wellness mein 8%, aur Personal Care aur Foods dono mein 5% growth ke saath volume growth 6% tak pahunch gaya. Company ko ek ₹247 Crore ka one-time gain bhi mila jisne profit badhane mein help ki. Lekin, operating margins thoda sa kam ho kar 23.5% ho gaya, jo pichle saal 23.8% tha. Yeh dikhata hai ki badhti hui costs ka pressure abhi bhi hai, aur company ko volume growth ke saath-saath prices aur costs ko bhi balance karna padega.
Valuation aur Peers ka comparison
HUL ki market cap lagbhag ₹5.41 lakh Crore hai, aur uska TTM P/E ratio lagbhag 53x hai, jo FMCG sector ke average 49-53x ke aas-paas hai. Dusri taraf, ITC ka P/E 11x-19x hai, Nestle India ka 78x-82x hai, aur Dabur India ka 39x-44x hai. HUL ka RSI 49.77 par neutral hai, matlab na zyada overbought na oversold. Pichhle 3 aur 5 saalon mein stock ne Sensex ko bhi underperform kiya hai.
Analysts kya bol rahe hain?
Market ki nazar price hike plan par hai, jisse yeh lagta hai ki HUL ko inflationary pressures ko manage karne mein dikkat ho sakti hai. Agar costs aise hi badhti rahi, toh margins par aur pressure aa sakta hai. MarketsMOJO ne toh December 2025 mein HUL ko 'Sell' rating di thi valuation aur fundamental issues ko dekhte hue. Bank of America ne bhi April 2025 mein 'Neutral' rating di thi, economic challenges aur rural demand ke kamzor hone ka warning dete hue. HUL ka valuation, competitors ke comparison mein kuch cases mein high hai aur recent underperformance bhi ek concern hai.
Aage kya hoga aur Dividend
HUL ke CEO ka kehna hai ki unka focus volume-led growth par rahega. Indian FMCG sector ke liye bhi forecast achi hai, jisme 2026 mein high-single-digit volume growth ki ummeed hai. Aur haan, shareholders ke liye khush khabri hai, company ne FY26 ke liye ₹22 per share ka final dividend announce kiya hai. Ab dekhna hai ki HUL badhti hui costs ko kaise manage karta hai aur price hike ke bawajood volume growth kaise maintain rakhta hai.