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Profit record, phir bhi stock down? Kya chal raha hai?
Godfrey Phillips India ne Q4 FY26 (ending March 31, 2026) ke liye jo financials report kiye hain, woh kamaal ke hain. Company ka consolidated net profit 86.7% jump karke ₹521.4 Crore tak pahunch gaya hai. Revenue bhi 13.6% badhkar ₹1,787.3 Crore ho gaya hai. Aur EBITDA toh double se bhi zyada, matlab ₹552.8 Crore ho gaya! Margins bhi mast 30.9% pe aa gaye, jo pehle sirf 17.1% the. Sab kuch itna positive hone ke baad bhi, stock 1.45% neeche band hua hai ₹2,422.50 par.
Investors kyun hain chintit?
Iska asli reason investors ki future ko lekar chinta hai. Tobacco industry mein regulatory changes ka dar laga rehta hai, aur ye bhi sawaal hai ki kya company itne high margins maintain kar paayegi. Management ne ₹33 per share ka dividend bhi announce kiya hai, lekin kuch logon ko lagta hai ki ye future growth uncertainty ke beech cash return ki strategy hai.
Valuation ka khel aur Peers se comparison
Godfrey Phillips India ka stock ₹2,422.50 par hai aur company ka market cap lagbhag ₹30,910 Crore hai. Iska P/E ratio bhi 45.7x ke aas-paas chal raha hai. Agar competitor ITC Ltd. ko dekhein, toh uska P/E 25x se kam hai aur market cap ₹2.6 lakh Crore se bhi zyada hai. Matlab, investors Godfrey Phillips India se bahut zyada growth expect kar rahe hain, aur shayad isi wajah se abhi thode nervous hain.
Regulatory Risks hamesha hain.
India mein tobacco sector hamesha government ke rules aur tax changes ke liye sensitive rehta hai. Isse pehle bhi excise duty mein ek change ne stock ko 17% gira diya tha. Godfrey Phillips ka business model diversified nahi hai, sirf tobacco par focus hai, isliye ye risks unke liye aur bhi bade ho sakte hain. Agar taxes badh gaye ya raw material mehnga hua, toh margins maintain karna tough ho sakta hai.
Analysts ka kya kehna hai?
Analysts bhi filhaal is stock ko lekar cautious hain. Zyada tar ne isko 'HOLD' ya 'NEUTRAL' rating di hai aur price target ₹2,500 se ₹2,800 ke beech rakha hai. Woh operational improvements ko appreciate kar rahe hain, par regulatory uncertainties aur margin sustainability ko lekar unki chinta bani hui hai. Dekhna hoga ki company kaise aage in challenges ko face karti hai.