FMCG Sector Mein Tsunami! Demand Slow Hone Se Shares Gire, ITC Ne Lagayi **20%** Ki Dubki!

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AuthorVihaan Mehta|Published at:
FMCG Sector Mein Tsunami! Demand Slow Hone Se Shares Gire, ITC Ne Lagayi **20%** Ki Dubki!
Overview

Bhai log, suno! FMCG sector mein aajkal badi gadbad chal rahi hai. Nifty FMCG index 2026 mein ab tak lagbhag **6%** neeche gir gaya hai. Iska sabse bada reason hai ITC ke shares mein hui **20%** ki bhayanak girawat. Aur bhi bade players jaise Varun Beverages aur Patanjali Foods bhi neeche aaye hain. Analysts keh rahe hain ki consumption kam ho raha hai, jisse sector par pressure hai, lekin kuch stocks mein abhi bhi upside dikh raha hai.

Yaar, yeh FMCG sector ka index jo hai na, Nifty FMCG, woh 2026 mein ab tak lagbhag 6% gir chuka hai. Yeh Nifty 50 ke 0.8% ki girawat ke muqable kafi zyada hai. Is girawat mein sabse bada hath ITC ka hai, jiske shares iss saal 20% giste hain aur ab ₹317 par aa gaye hain. Stock ne May 2025 ke ₹444.20 ke peak se lagbhag 29% ki mandi dikhai hai.

Sector Mein Challenges Bade Hain!

Sirf ITC hi nahi, bhai. Radico Khaitan, Varun Beverages, Emami, Patanjali Foods, aur Tata Consumer jaise bade naam bhi 16% tak neeche aaye hain. Analysts ko lagta hai ki aage bhi mushkil ho sakti hai. Equinomics Research ke G Chokkalingam bhai kehte hain ki hawa mein to sab theek lag raha hai par volume growth bahut slow hai, iska reason hai logon ka kharch karna kam karna. Unhone kaha, "Sector faces rough terrain," matlab sector mushkil raaste se guzar raha hai.

ITC Ka Tax Aur Future

Ab ITC ki baat karte hain. Chokkalingam bhai ko lagta hai ki cigarette tax hike par market ka reaction thoda zyada ho gaya hai. Unka target ITC ke liye ₹380 hai iss saal ke liye, jo abhi ke levels se 20% ka upside dikhata hai. Axis Securities, Elara Capital, aur Systematix jaisi brokerages bhi ITC ko hold ya accumulate karne ki salah de rahe hain. Haan, Elara Capital ne zarur FY27E aur FY28E ke liye earnings estimate 12.1% aur 13% kam kar diye hain tax ke karan. Unke hisaab se cigarette business ka EBIT CAGR FY26E-28E tak -3.3% reh sakta hai tax ke badhne se.

HUL Ke Mixed Results

Ab Hindustan Unilever (HUL) ki taraf dekhte hain. Unka October-December 2025 quarter ka standalone net profit ₹7,075 crore raha. Isme ₹4,516 crore ka ek bada one-time gain bhi shamil hai, jo unke ice cream business demerger se aaya tha. Agar is special gain ko hata dein toh profit after tax sirf 1% badhkar ₹2,562 crore hua hai. Company ko ₹113 crore ka exceptional cost bhi laga new labor code implement karne mein. Itna sab hone ke baad bhi, HUL ka stock NSE par 3% neeche fisal gaya tha aur ₹2,383.10 ka intra-day low bana liya.

Kahan Karein Paisa Invest?

Toh ab kya karein? Geojit Investments ke Gaurang Shah bhai ka kehna hai ki dhyan se investment karni chahiye. Unko lagta hai ki semi-urban aur rural demand mein sudhar ho sakta hai. Input costs kam hone se profit margins ko fayda hoga, par advertising par kharch soch samajh ke karna hoga. Woh Britannia, Nestle, HUL, ITC, Godrej Consumer, Tata Consumer, Dabur, aur Marico jaise stocks par positive hain, aur unhe lagta hai ki iss saal ke aakhir tak yeh stocks 12-15% tak chal sakte hain. Independent expert Ambareesh Baliga bhai keh rahe hain ki sirf unhi stocks par focus karo jahan earnings ki visibility clear ho. Dabur, Emami, aur Marico unke liye 18-20% upside de sakte hain, agar economic growth support kare toh. Aur ITC ko woh contrarian buy maan rahe hain.

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