DMart Stock: ICICI Securities Growth se zyada Stability par focus, 'Hold' maintain kiya

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AuthorRiya Kapoor|Published at:
DMart Stock: ICICI Securities Growth se zyada Stability par focus, 'Hold' maintain kiya
Overview

ICICI Securities ne Avenue Supermarts (DMart) ko 'Hold' rating di hai, company ke aggressive growth ke bajaye operational stability par focus karne ki wajah se. 8.4% EBITDA margin surprise hone ke bawajood, like-for-like sales growth dheema hua hai aur store productivity pandemic se pehle ke levels se neeche hai. Brokerage ne steady earnings growth ka forecast kiya hai, ₹4,000 ka target price maintain karte hue revenue estimates kam kiye hain.

ICICI Securities ne Avenue Supermarts (DMart) par apna "Hold" recommendation maintain rakha hai, aur target price ₹4,000 revise kiya hai. Brokerage ka kehna hai ki retail giant tez growth se zyada stability ko priority de raha hai.

Operational Performance

DMart ne 8.4% ka EBITDA margin report kiya hai, jo disciplined execution aur cost control ki wajah se expectations se behtar hai. Halanki, ye unfavorable product mix ke bawajood achieve kiya gaya.

Growth momentum mein kami hai. Like-for-like (L2L) sales growth FY26 ke third quarter mein 5.6% tak dheema ho gaya, jo pichhle saal ke comparable quarter ke approx 8.3% se kam hai. Store productivity bhi pre-COVID-19 levels se neeche hai.

Earnings Outlook

Company ka staple-heavy product mix aur online grocery service, DMart ReADY, ka carefully managed expansion earnings visibility aur downside protection provide karta hai. Lekin ye factors ticket size mein potential gains ko cap karte hain aur operating leverage ko limit karte hain, khaas kar jab competition badh raha hai aur urban consumer baskets fragment ho rahe hain.

Analysts ka maanana hai ki stock ka significant re-rating hone ke liye discretionary spending-led L2L growth aur improved store-level productivity ka sustained rebound zaroori hoga, sirf margin improvements se zyada. Isiliye, earnings growth explosive hone ke bajaye steady hone ki projection hai.

Revised Estimates

ICICI Securities ne apne financial forecasts ko adjust kiya hai, FY26E aur FY27E ke liye revenue estimates ko approx 2% aur 4% tak kam kiya hai. Iske vipreet, FY26E ke liye earnings estimates ko lagbhag 4% badhaya gaya hai.
Brokerage FY25 aur FY28 ke beech revenue ke liye 16%, EBITDA ke liye 17%, aur profit after tax (PAT) ke liye 17% ka compound annual growth rate (CAGR) project karta hai. Pichla target price ₹4,400 tha.

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