Whalesbook
Cost Pressure aur Naye Expenses ka Game
Prabhudas Lilladher ka kehna hai ki company par commodity costs kaafi pressure daal rahi hain, aur saath hi naye market mein entry karne ke liye bhi expenses ho rahe hain. Is wajah se FY27 aur FY28 ke liye earnings growth ke estimates ko 5.7% aur 7.0% tak kam kar diya gaya hai. Stock mein thoda dip bhi dikha hai, par lag raha hai investors news ko digest kar rahe hain, panic nahi kar rahe.
Kahan dikh rahi hai Value?
Pressure hone ke bawajood, Crompton ne apne Electrical Consumer Durables (ECD) segment mein 9.5% aur Lighting business mein 14.3% ki solid growth dikhai hai. Inki Butterfly subsidiary bhi acche results de rahi hai. Company residential wires aur solar projects jaise areas mein enter karne ki planning kar rahi hai, jo future growth ke liye achha sign hai.
Peers ke Comparison mein Stock?
Crompton ka price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio lagbhag 55x hai, jo ki Havells India (50x) aur Orient Electric (45x) ke aas paas hai, par V-Guard Industries (60x) se thoda kam. Matlab, valuation ke hisaab se stock apne competitors ke beech mein normal lag raha hai.
Brokerage firm ka view thoda conservative hai, kyunki baaki analysts ka consensus 'Buy' rating ka hai aur average target price ₹330 ke aas paas hai. History mein dekhein toh aise rating changes ke baad stock mein 4% tak ka dip aata hai, jo baad mein theek ho jaata hai.
Challenges kya hain?
Bear case ye hai ki inflation, especially metals aur plastics mein, margins ko hit kar rahi hai. Iske alawa, residential wires jaise competitive market mein ghusne ke liye aur bhi investment lagega. July 2026 se water heaters ke liye naye BEE norms aa rahe hain, jiske liye product redesign aur R&D mein kharcha hoga. Ye sab cheezein future earnings ko thoda challenging bana sakti hain.
Future Outlook kya kehta hai?
In sab challenges ke bawajood, Prabhudas Lilladher ka anuman hai ki fiscal years 2026 se 2028 ke beech revenue, EBITDA, aur PAT mein 16.9% se 21.4% tak ka Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) mil sakta hai. Unka naya ₹320 ka price target March 2028 ki earnings par 27 times multiple ke hisab se diya gaya hai.