Is share ke bhaagne ke peeche sabse bada reason ye hai ki companies ne excise duty badhne ke baad bhi apne products ke daam badhane ka strategy liya. Government ne jab excise duty badhai, tab lag raha tha ki cigarette companies ki band baj jayegi. Lekin ITC aur GPI ne dikhaya apna dum!
February 18, 2026 ko, ITC ke shares 2% tak badhe aur ₹328.75 par close hue, jabki GPI ka share toh 12% se bhi upar bhag kar ₹2,065.8 ke aas-paas trade kar raha tha. Is toofani tezi ka sabse bada reason hai companies ka smart move - apne products ke daam badhana. Jaise Godfrey Phillips India ne Marlboro Compact ka price ₹9.5 se badha kar ₹11.5 kar diya. ITC ne toh Gold Flake aur Classic jaise brands par 41% tak aur Gold Flake Superstar (Value) par 19% tak price hike kiya hai. Market ko lagta hai ki companies apne profits bacha lengi.
Brokerage firm UBS toh ITC par kaafi bullish hai. Unhone 'Buy' rating maintain rakhi hai aur target price ko ₹420 se badha kar ₹395 kar diya hai, matlab abhi bhi 29% ka upside dikh raha hai. UBS ka kehna hai ki premium segments mein price hikes easily absorb ho gaye hain.
Ab valuation ki baat karein toh ITC ka market cap lagbhag ₹4.07 lakh crore hai aur iska P/E ratio 19.36 se 24.77 ke beech hai. GPI thoda chota hai, market cap ₹31,437 se ₹32,472 crore ke beech aur P/E 24.87 se 29.99 hai. Yaad hai jab January 2026 mein excise duty badhi thi? Tab toh ITC 9.7% aur GPI 19% gir gaya tha. Yeh sab government ki WHO norms ke hisaab se tax badhane ki koshish ka hissa hai.
Par sab kuch itna smooth nahi hai. Kai brokerages thoda cautious hain. Emkay Global aur PL Capital ne toh ITC ko downgrade bhi kiya tha. PL Capital ko lagta hai FY27 mein ITC ke volumes 12.5% tak gir sakte hain. Jefferies ne bhi kaha ki yeh tax hike "meaningful negative surprise" hai. Jab price ₹22-25 tak badh jayega, toh illicit trade yaani smuggled cigarettes ka risk badh jayega. Yeh legal companies ke liye problem ho sakti hai.
Aage kya hoga? Yeh dekna hoga ki ITC aur GPI kitni aasani se daam badha paate hain. Kuch analysts ko ITC par bharosa hai, jabki kuch ko lagta hai ki volumes aur margins par pressure aa sakta hai. Sbhi ki nazar regulator par bhi rahegi.