Whalesbook
Costs ka pressure aur price hike ka plan
Dekho, Blue Star ne Q4 FY26 mein ₹4,072 crore ka record revenue banaya hai aur EBITDA margins bhi 8% ho gaye hain, jo last year se 7% tha. Lekin ye sab hone ke baad bhi, raw materials (copper, plastics) aur rupee ki girawat ke chalte company ko bohot pressure feel ho raha hai. Isliye, fiscal year end tak prices mein kam se kam 8% ka aur hike karna zaruri hai.
Price hike ka scheme aur demand destruction ka risk
Asal mein, room air conditioners ke liye total 13% tak ka price hike lagbhag required hai, par abhi tak sirf 8% hi implement hua hai. Plan hai ki June mein 5% aur festive season se pehle 3% aur badha diya jaye. Company ke MD ne khud warn kiya hai ki customers shayad ye badhti hui prices ko afford na kar paayein, jisse 'demand destruction' ka risk hai. Ye risk aur bhi zyada hai kyunki summer mein sales expectations se kam rahi aur dealers ne pehle se inventory build up kar li thi.
Margins, Order Book aur Valuation
Segment wise, unitary products ka margin 10.4% raha. Order book bhi 10.5% badh kar ₹6,923 crore ho gayi hai, jo data centers aur healthcare projects se aa rahi hai. Stock ki baat karein toh mid-May 2026 mein around ₹1,658 par tha. P/E ratio 64.6x hai, jo Voltas ke 108x-113x ke comparison mein kaafi kam hai. Havells India 45-47x aur Crompton Greaves 38-40x par hain.
Dividend cut aur Macroeconomic headwinds
In sab pressures ke chalte company ne FY26 ke liye dividend bhi ₹8.5 per share kar diya hai (pehle ₹9 tha). Bahar ke factors bhi pressure bana rahe hain, jaise crude oil prices $105-108 per barrel, rupee ka record low par hona aur RBI dwara inflation ko lekar chinta.
FY27 Outlook aur Analysts ka view
FY27 ke liye company ka target double-digit volume growth ka hai, aur segment margins 7-7.5% aur 8-8.5% ke beech rehne ki ummeed hai. Analysts ka consensus target ₹2,000–₹2,300 ke beech hai, matlab upside potential dikh raha hai. Par Jefferies jaise analysts 'Hold' rating de rahe hain, jabki Axis Capital 'Buy' rating ke saath zyada bullish hai.