Whalesbook
Revenue toh mast hai, par baki ka kya?
Avenue Supermarts, jo apna business DMART ke naam se chalaati hai, ne Q4FY26 mein revenue mein 19% ka zabardast jump dikhaya hai, jo ki ₹17,683.86 crore tak pahunch gaya. Company ne FY26 ke end tak 500 se zyada stores ka bada milestone bhi achieve kar liya hai. Unka EBITDA margin bhi thoda sudhar kar 7.2% ho gaya hai, jo pichhle saal se 37 bps upar hai.
Par investors kyun hain pareshan?
Sabse badi chinta hai company ka badhta hua debt aur inventory. FY26 mein total debt ₹2,267 crore ho gaya hai, jo FY25 mein sirf ₹693 crore tha. Isse debt-to-equity ratio 0.09 ho gaya hai. Aur haan, inventory turnover bhi dheema padh gaya hai, jo FY26 mein 12.8 tha, FY25 mein yeh 13.6 tha. Iska matlab hai ki company ka paisa maal mein zyada time tak fasa reh raha hai. Is wajah se kuch important profitability metrics bhi thode gire hain, jaise return on net worth 13.5% ho gaya 14.1% se aur return on capital employed 17.1% ho gaya 17.8% se.
Stock girne par analysts kya keh rahe hain?
Market ne inumbers ko negative response diya hai aur results ke baad DMART ka stock ~5% tak gir gaya. Analysts ka kehna hai ki DMART ka valuation abhi bhi bahut mehnga hai. Iska P/E ratio ~100x ke aas-paas hai, jabki Reliance Industries ka retail arm sirf ~24x aur Trent Ltd. ~85x par trade ho rahe hain.
Kuch analysts jaise CLSA aur Morgan Stanley ne 'Outperform' ya 'Overweight' rating rakhi hai aur price target ₹6,628 aur ₹5,188 ke aas-paas diya hai. Lekin Emkay Global ne 'Sell' rating di hai aur target ₹3,700 rakha hai, kyunki unko lagta hai ki quick commerce se competition badh raha hai aur valuation bahut zyada hai. ICICI Securities ne 'Hold' kaha hai, unka kehna hai ki long-term toh acha hai par current valuation mein sab kuch already priced in lagta hai. Average 12-month target ₹4,396.77 hai, jo zyada upside nahi dikhata.
Retail market mein competition bahut tez hai aur consumer habits bhi badal rahi hain, jaise quick commerce ka rise, jo DMART ke liye challenge hai.