Whalesbook
Ab asli baat ye hai ki Aditya Vision Limited (AVL) India ke badhte organized retail market mein apna share badhana chahta hai. Bhai, inke paas 207 stores hain, jo Croma aur Reliance Digital ke total stores se bhi zyada nikle! Aur market mein abhi bhi bahut scope hai, organised retail toh India mein bas 30% hi hai. Isliye ICICI Direct ne inki rating 'BUY' rakhi hai aur target price diya hai ₹600. Par ye target matlab stock ka FY28 P/E 39x hoga, jo thoda premium lag raha hai. Ye price tabhi justify hoga jab company apna growth maintain karegi aur expansion smooth chalega.
AVL ka asli power Bihar, Eastern UP aur Jharkhand mein hai jahan unka local connect bahut strong hai. Ab woh log Madhya Pradesh, Central/Western UP aur Chhattisgarh mein enter kar rahe hain, woh bhi bade format wale stores ke saath. Yeh ek bada step hai kyunki Madhya Pradesh mein toh inka koi presence hi nahi hai, toh execution challenge toh pakka hai. Naye ilakon mein competition bhi badhega, jahan bade players already maujood hain.
Agar rivals se compare karein, toh Trent Limited (Croma) ka P/E lagbhag 85x hai. Reliance Retail toh alag hi league mein hai. Aditya Vision ka current P/E 60x ke aas paas hai, toh expectations bahut high hain. India ka organised retail market ₹36-38 trillion tak pahunch sakta hai 2028 tak, par competition zabardast hai aur chote players ko bhi tikna padega.
Company ka track record achha hai, ab tak zero store closures dikhate hain ki operations control mein hain. Lekin naye regions mein entry mein execution risk toh hota hi hai. Analysts expect kar rahe hain ki FY25-28E mein revenue 19.3% aur PAT 23.0% saalana grow karega. Lekin company ka operating profit margin FY25 mein 9.0% tha jo FY24 ke 9.6% se kam tha, haan net profit margin thoda badha tha. Itne bade expansion ke liye paisa aur resources lagte hain, agar manage nahi hua toh profit par pressure aa sakta hai.
FY25 mein company ka revenue ₹2,270 crore tha aur unke paas 2,536 employees hain. Overall, Aditya Vision sahi direction mein ja raha hai, lekin naye markets mein success aur apna valuation maintain karna ek bada test hoga.