Whalesbook
To bhaiyo, Emkay Global ne Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands (ABLBL) ko 'BUY' rating di hai aur target price ₹140 set kiya hai. Ye bade announcement tab aaya jab company ne FY26 ke Q4 mein revenue growth ko 12% tak le gaya, jo pehle nine months ke 6% se kaafi behtar hai. Company ka EBITDA margin bhi thoda sudhra hai, jismein B2B business ke expansion aur PLI scheme ka bhi fayda mila.
Baaki analysts bhi mostly 'Outperform' rating de rahe hain, average target price lagbhag ₹148.50 ke aas-paas hai. Emkay ko expect hai ki ABLBL aage bhi low double-digit revenue growth aur gradual margin improvement dikhayega, especially FY28 tak emerging businesses ko profit mein lane ki ummeed hai.
Ab growth plans ki baat karein toh, Reebok brand, jise ABFRL manage karta hai, FY27 tak apne 500 stores tak pahunchne ka plan bana raha hai, currently yeh 160 se zyada hain. Product innovation par bhi focus hai. Wahi, VH Innerwear jo ki mid-premium segment mein dusra bada player hai, FY28 tak margin turnaround dikha sakta hai, iske liye distribution network bhi expand ho raha hai.
Market ki baat karein toh, Indian apparel retail market 2030 tak ₹16 lakh crore ka ho jayega, ye growth disposable income badhne aur organized retail ki taraf shift hone se aa rahi hai. E-commerce bhi iss market mein apna share badhayega.
Lekin sabse badi chinta hai stock ka valuation. ABLBL ka P/E ratio lagbhag 81.4x hai, jo industry average 20.4x aur competitors ke 56.9x se bahut zyada hai. Pichhle saal toh stock ne market cap mein -28.11% ka dip bhi dikhaya hai, jo potential overvaluation ka sign hai.
Competition bhi kam nahi hai. Arvind Fashions jaise competitors ne FY26 mein zyada growth dikhaya hai. Aur upar se inflation aur consumer spending slow hone ka risk bhi hai. Reebok ke store expansion mein bhi execution aur capital expenditure ka risk hai.
Basically, ABLBL ko apni valuation justify karne ke liye, expansion plans ko properly execute karna hoga, costs manage karni hongi aur capital efficiency badhani hogi.