Whalesbook
Okay, toh Vedanta ke share mein 4.7% ki teziri aayi, stock ₹774 tak pahunch gaya! Bhai, yeh BSE Sensex se bhi zabardast perform kar raha tha. Asal mein, sabka dhyan company ke bade de-merger plan par hai, jiska record date May 1 ko hai. Is plan ke hisab se, har ek Vedanta share ke liye aapko 4 naye companies ke shares milenge - yeh hain Vedanta Aluminium, Vedanta Power, Vedanta Oil & Gas, aur Vedanta Iron & Steel. Jo Vedanta naam ki company bachegi, usme Hindustan Zinc jaisi businesses rahengi. Yeh India ke metals and mining sector mein sabse bada restructuring hai, jisse alag alag businesses ko apni pehchan milegi.
Ab valuation ki baat karein toh, Vedanta ki market cap abhi lagbhag ₹2.9 trillion hai. Iska P/E ratio 21.57 chal raha hai, jo ki peers se kaafi upar hai. Jaise Hindalco ka P/E 14-15 ke aas paas hai aur industry average toh bas 9.9 hai. Yahan tak ki JSW Steel 40-42 P/E par trade kar raha hai. Lekin is premium valuation ke bawajood, Vedanta ka stock pichhle saal 85% bhaga hai, jabki BSE Sensex toh 3% gir gaya tha.
Par yahan ek bada 'but' hai, aur woh hai company ka debt! Vedanta par lagbhag ₹81,000 crore ka gross debt aur ₹60,600 crore ka net debt hai. Aur ICICI Securities ke analysts ek scary prediction de rahe hain: de-merger ke baad yeh share price ₹300-325 tak gir sakta hai, halanki abhi yeh ₹720 ke level par hai! Iska reason ye hai ki yeh sara debt naye banne wale 5 entities mein distribute hoga, aur koi bhi debt-free nahi rahega. Sabse zyada debt aluminium business par aa sakta hai, jo sabse bada aur capital-intensive hai. Toh bhai, ye ek bada near-term risk hai.
Analysts ka opinion yahan thoda banta hua dikh raha hai. Long term mein, kuch analysts jaise ICICI Securities ₹820 ka 'sum-of-the-parts' valuation dekh rahe hain. Overall, analyst ratings 'Strong Buy' hain aur average 12-month target ₹859.77 hai. Lekin kuch brokerage jaise Motilal Oswal neutral hain (target ₹750), jabki Systematix aur Kotak bullish hain (target ₹898 aur ₹890). ICICI Securities ne toh 'HOLD' karne ki salah di hai, unke khayal mein Vedanta Aluminium ki listing ₹400 se zyada valuation par ho sakti hai. Nuvama ko FY26 ke Q4 results bhi achhe aane ki umeed hai. Yeh demerged entities 1 se 2 mahine mein list ho sakti hain, aur inka future debt management aur market conditions par depend karega.