Whalesbook
Arey, yeh Vedanta wala demerger toh nearly done ho gaya hai! Ab company 5 alag-alag companies mein bat jayegi. Shareholders ko naye shares mil jayenge May 11, 2026 tak, aur ye naye entities mid-June tak stock market mein list ho jayengi. Chairman Anil Agarwal ka kehna hai ki yeh sab ek naya chapter shuru karne ke liye hai, jahan har business apne hisaab se grow karega aur expansion plans ko bina kisi rukawat ke execute karega. Jaise ki, Aluminium capacity ko 6 million tonnes tak badhana hai, aur Oil & Gas mein $5 billion ka investment karne ka plan hai.
Lekin bhai, yahan ek badi 'par' hai. Yeh naye entities akele khadi hongi, toh competitors se muqabla karna padega. Jaise Aluminium ki baat karein toh market mein prices $3,200 per tonne ke aas-paas rahegi, par competitors Hindalco aur NALCO bhi kam nahi hain. Aur sabse badi baat, Aluminium business par hi sabse zyada $3.27 billion ka loan aa jayega! Oil & Gas wala business debt-free hone ki koshish karega, par crude oil prices ka future kya hoga, yeh kisi ko nahi pata - koi keh raha $90+, koi $60. Steel business mein toh JSW Steel aur Tata Steel jaise bade players hain. Power sector mein bhi competition hai. Woh jo baaki bacha hua Vedanta entity hai, jo Hindustan Zinc par depend karta hai, woh stable toh rahega par growth slow ho sakti hai.
Ab aate hain sabse bade risks par - pehla toh hai yeh debt ka bojh. Poora group lagbhag ₹53,400 crore ke debt mein hai aur yeh sab naye businesses mein bant jayega. Aluminium ko sabse zyada $3.27 billion milenge, aur Power business ka debt-to-earnings ratio sabse high hai (net debt-to-EBITDA of 4.7x). Agar commodity prices gir gayi toh loan chukana mushkil ho jayega. Dusra hai competition. Yeh naye businesses ko bade, well-funded competitors se ladna hoga. Vedanta Aluminium ka P/E ratio (21.57x TTM) sector average (9.9x) aur Hindalco (14-15x) se zyada hai. Aur teesra sabse bada risk hai commodity prices ki fluctuations. Aluminium prices $3,200-$3,400/tonne tak ja sakti hain, par late 2026 tak $2,350/tonne bhi gir sakti hain. Steel prices mein bhi uncertainty hai. Yeh sab cheezein profits aur loan repayment par asar daalengi.
Toh ab investors ko bahut dhyan se dekhna padega ki yeh companies apne growth plans kaise execute karti hain aur debt kaise manage karti hain. Agle 12-18 mahine decide karenge ki yeh demerger ek game-changer banta hai ya sirf debt ko alag-alag compartments mein spread kar deta hai.