Whalesbook
Supply mein rukavat, demand girawat pe?
Ab dekho, is US-Iran conflict ki wajah se supply chain mein bohot badi gadbad ho gayi hai. S&P Global Energy ne apna 2026 ka global oil demand growth forecast 700,000 barrels per day se kam kar diya hai. Ab yeh log expect kar rahe hain ki growth sirf 400,000 bpd hogi. Matlab, demand ab pehle jaisi nahi rahi, especially diesel aur jet fuel jaise refined products ke liye toh bohot mushkil hone wala hai.
Strait of Hormuz: Asli tension yahi hai!
Is sabka reason hai Strait of Hormuz, jo oil ke liye sabse important rasta hai. Yahan supply mein rukavat aane se duniya ki 40% refining capacity affect ho rahi hai. Aam taur par yahan se roz 20 million barrels oil aur refined products nikalte hain. Iss wajah se jet fuel ke prices kuch regions mein $195 per barrel ke paar pahunch gaye hain aur diesel bhi mehenga ho gaya hai. Europe aur America mein US refiners ko iska fayda mil raha hai, kyuki unke paas cheap crude hai aur woh zyada margin bana rahe hain.
Temporary relief ya permanent change?
Market ko sambhalne ke liye Japan aur South Korea jaise countries ne apna strategic reserve khola hai aur US crude exports bhi badh gaye hain, par yeh sirf temporary relief hai. International Energy Agency toh keh rahi hai ki yeh oil market mein ab tak ka sabse bada supply disruption hai. IMF ne bhi 2026 ki global growth forecast 3.1% kar di hai. Central banks ke liye inflation aur slow growth ko manage karna mushkil ho raha hai.
Aage ka risk kya hai?
Sabse bada risk toh yehi hai ki agar conflict badh gaya toh prices aur upar bhagenge. US production akela yeh gap nahi bhar sakta aur Strait of Hormuz hamesha risk mein rahega. Yeh sab milkar logon aur businesses ke liye energy ko bohot mehenga bana raha hai, jisse demand permanent kam ho sakti hai.