Whalesbook
Tariffs Ne Steel Rally Ko Di Fuel!
Yaar, Friday ko Nifty Metal index ne ek dum se comeback kiya, 2 percent ka jump dikha kar do din ki girawat ko khatam kiya. Iska main reason hai steel shares mein hui zabardast kharidari. Sabse aage rahi Tata Steel, jiska share price 4.64% badh kar ₹199.40 par pahunch gaya. Ye rally global trade policies mein changes ke karan hai. HSBC ne Tata Steel par apna price target ₹235 se badha kar ₹250 kar diya hai, aur unka kehna hai ki stock mein abhi 31% tak ka potential upside hai.
Yeh upgrade UK dwara lagaye gaye 50 percent ke tariff aur quota reduction jaise measures ke baad aaya hai, jo domestic sector ko protect karne ke liye hain. European Union ki planned carbon pricing bhi ek factor hai. India ki safeguard duties ke saath milkar, ye sab cheezein domestic prices ko stabilize karne aur March 2026 quarter mein steel mills ke profit ko boost karne ki umeed hai. Analysts ko lagta hai ki steel sector ka EBITDA per tonne ab kaafi badhega.
JSW Steel bhi peeche nahi raha, uska share 4.85% badh kar ₹1186.90 par pahunch gaya. Macquarie ne JSW Steel ko top pick bataya hai aur Tata Steel par 'Outperform' rating rakhi hai, target ₹222 ke saath.
Aluminum Par Overcapacity Ka Pressure
Jab steel stocks upar bhag rahe the, tabhi aluminum shares ne ulta rukh liya. National Aluminium Company Ltd (NALCO) ke shares 4 percent gir gaye. Iska reason hai analysts ka sentiment, jahan InCred Equities ne Hindalco Industries aur NALCO dono ko 'reduce' rating di hai. Unka kehna hai ki growth prospects kamzor hain aur aluminum prices bhi gir rahe hain.
NALCO ke expansion plans aise time par aa rahe hain jab alumina prices bhi kam ho rahe hain. Analysts ko lagta hai ki NALCO aur Hindalco dono ke earnings kam ho sakte hain. JSW Steel ki revenue growth 9.6% annual rehne ki forecast hai.
Global Overcapacity Ka Risk Ab Bhi Hai
Trade policies se immediate boost milne ke baad bhi, global steel industry mein underlying issues hain. Steel production capacity 2025 ke end tak 2.55 billion metric tons tak pahunchne ki ummeed hai, jisse lagbhag 680 million metric tons ka surplus capacity ho sakta hai. Ye oversupply trade friction ko badhata hai aur prices ko kam karta hai.
European Union ka Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) bhi Indian steel producers ke liye export costs badha raha hai. Historical data dekhein toh, April 4, 2025 ko US tariffs ke baad Tata Steel shares 7.82% gir gaye the. Metal sector April 2025 ki shuruaat mein 19% tak gir gaya tha trade war ke dar se. Ye protectionist policies short-term relief de sakti hain, par long term mein global demand aur profits par asar dal sakti hain.
Analysts Kya Keh Rahe Hain?
Hilton ne Tata Steel par bullish stance rakha hai, lekin overall analyst views mixed hain. Macquarie ne Tata Steel ka target ₹222 aur JSW Steel ka target ₹1,319 rakha hai. JM Financial bhi Tata Steel aur Jindal Steel ko top picks maan raha hai.
Motilal Oswal ne Tata Steel ka target ₹240 set kiya hai, jismein Indian demand ko strong bataya gaya hai, par EU CBAM aur competition ke risks bhi hain. World Steel Association ka forecast hai ki 2026 mein global steel demand 1.3% badhegi, India mein 9% growth ke saath. Lekin high production costs aur geopolitical uncertainties jaise risks abhi bhi hain.