Whalesbook
Silver ka Bada Fall: ₹4.39 Lakh Se Girkar ₹2.37 Lakh Tak!
Yaar, silver ki prices ne toh sabko hila diya hai. January 29, 2026 ko yeh ₹4.39 lakh per kilogram ke peak par tha, lekin ab April 28, 2026 tak yeh 45% loot gaya aur ₹2.37 lakh per kilogram par trade kar raha hai. Market mein kaafi volatility aur West Asia mein badhte tensions ne is girawat ko aur tez kar diya. Aisa lag raha hai jaise silver ab safe haven se zyada risky asset ban gaya hai. Kuch hi dinon mein ₹25,000 tak ke swings aa rahe hain!
Geopolitics vs. Fundamental Demand: Kya Chal Raha Hai?
West Asia mein chal rahe conflicts aur energy prices badhne se market mein tension hai. Upar se USD strong ho raha hai aur Fed rate cuts ko lekar uncertainty hai, jisne silver par pressure banaya hua hai. Is wajah se log isse ek stable asset ki tarah nahi dekh rahe. Silver ki volatility 50% tak pahunch gayi hai, jo pichhle 26 saalon mein sabse zyada hai. Matlab, ab log speculation mein zyada paisa laga rahe hain, real demand se zyada.
Lekin bhai, asli picture toh long term mein strong dikh rahi hai. 2026 tak 46.3 million troy ounces ka supply deficit hone wala hai, jo prices ko support dega. Aur industrial demand toh bhai sabse zabardast hai – EVs, solar energy, AI hardware, electronics, sab mein silver ka use badh raha hai. Sirf EV demand 2031 tak silver usage ko double kar sakti hai! Gold ne toh is saal 9.32% ka return diya hai aur safe-haven bana hua hai, lekin silver pichhle kuch saalon mein gold se zyada perform kar chuka hai.
Kya Hai Risks Aur Analysts Kya Kehte Hain?
Par yahan risks bhi kam nahi hain. J.P. Morgan keh raha hai ki agar prices aise hi volatile rahi toh industrial users alternatives par shift ho sakte hain. Agar tensions kam hue toh silver ka safe-haven appeal bhi kam ho jayega. Kuch analysts ko lagta hai ki market speculative investments ko zyada value de raha hai, jo fundamentals ke hisaab se sahi nahi hai. Fed ka interest rate kam karne ka slow pace bhi silver jaisi assets ke liye problem hai, kyunki ye interest earn nahi karti.
2026 ke liye analysts ke forecasts alag-alag hain. Kuch log $56 se $65 per ounce bol rahe hain, jabki J.P. Morgan $81 per ounce ka average dekh raha hai. Kuch toh $90 se $100 per ounce tak ka target de rahe hain, aur Bank of America ne toh $309 per ounce ka high target diya hai! Overall, short term mein volatility rahegi, par supply deficit aur industrial demand ki wajah se long term mein silver strong reh sakta hai.