Whalesbook
April 1st Ki Yeh Choti Si Tezi Kuch Khaas Rahat Nahi De Rahi
To bhaiyo, April 1st ko silver ka price 0.22% badh kar ₹242 per gram ho gaya, aur ₹242,270 per kilogram. Yeh thoda dollar index ke kamzor hone aur Middle East mein tensions thoda shaant hone ki wajah se hua. Lekin, yeh sirf ek chhota sa 'bounce' hai, koi bada fundamental change nahi dikh raha.
March Mein Hua 'Bhaari Nuksaan'
Asal 'drama' toh March mein hua tha. Silver ne ekdum se >20% se zyada ka girawat dikhaya, jo pichhle 15 saalon mein sabse bura tha. Ab toh yeh apne record high se lagbhag 40% neeche trade kar raha hai. Gold ke comparison mein silver aur bhi zyada volatile nikla. Gold thoda gira tha, par silver ka girawat lagbhag double tha! Gold-silver ratio jo pehle 50:1 tha, woh ab badh gaya hai, matlab silver thoda peeche reh gaya hai.
Fed Policy Aur Inflation Ka Tension
Ab baat karte hain sabse bade tension ki - U.S. Federal Reserve. Ab market ko lag raha hai ki Fed 2026 mein interest rates mein koi cut karegi hi nahi. Pehle lag raha tha ki do baar cut ho sakta hai, par ab situation alag hai. Jab rates high rahenge, toh silver jaise commodities jisme koi interest nahi milta, woh less attractive ho jaate hain compared to savings accounts ya bonds. Aur upar se energy prices bhi badh rahi hain, Middle East ke issues ke karan. Ye sab milkar inflation ko badhate hain aur Fed ko aur tight policy rakhene ko majboor karte hain.
Industrial Demand Pe Bhi Asar
Silver sirf 'safe haven' nahi hai, balki industrial use mein bhi kaam aata hai. Lagbhag 60% demand toh solar panels, electric vehicles aur AI tech se aati hai. Industrial demand 2026 mein badhne wali thi, khaas kar solar sector mein, jo lagbhag 160 million ounces use kar sakta tha. Lekin, ab silver ka price itna high chal raha hai ki manufacturers bhi kam use karne ki soch rahe hain. Solar mein hi demand 7% kam ho sakti hai. Aur silver ka supply bhi increase karna mushkil hai, kyunki yeh mostly dusre metals (like copper, zinc) mining ka byproduct hai. Isliye supply mein hamesha 100 million to 250 million ounces tak ka shortfall rehta hai.
Bearish Outlook Aur Analysts Ki Rai
Toh overall, abhi silver ka outlook thoda bearish hi lag raha hai. Jigar Trivedi, jo IndusInd Securities mein Senior Research Analyst hain, unka kehna hai ki MCX Silver May futures ₹239,000 per kilogram tak gir sakta hai. Iske peeche global sentiment ka weak hona, Fed ki tight policy, aur energy market ka issue hai. Traders toh ab rate cuts ki ummeed hi chhod chuke hain. Middle East mein agar situation phir bigdi toh yeh phir se inflation badha sakta hai. ING analyst $55 per ounce dekh rahe hain, jabki J.P. Morgan $81 ka average target de rahe hain. Matlab experts bhi confuse hain, itni wide range hai predictions mein.
Aage Kya?
Analysts keh rahe hain ki silver ka price short term mein ek range mein hi ghumega. Geopolitical situation aur central bank policies pe nazar rakhni padegi. Long term mein industrial demand aur supply shortage toh achhi cheezein hain, par immediate future uncertain hai. Kuch forecast ke hisaab se silver is quarter ke end tak $76.59 aur 12 mahine mein $84.29 per ounce tak ja sakta hai. Matlab fluctuations toh rahenge hi. Investors ko domestic aur international trends, khaas kar geopolitical events aur policy changes pe dhyaan dena chahiye.