Whalesbook
Ab dekho, ye jo March ka revenue number aaya hai na, 617 billion roubles (ya $7.72 billion), ye February ke production ko represent karta hai. Asal mein, March mein toh global oil prices mein aag lagi hui thi, thanks to Middle East mein badhte geopolitical tensions. Jiski wajah se Brent crude $109 aur WTI $111 ke paar pahunch gaya. Isi liye April se ek rebound ki ummeed hai.
Lekin ye sirf prices ka khel nahi hai, bhai. Russia ka budget hamesha commodity prices aur global events par bahut depend karta hai. Pichle saal (2025) mein toh oil & gas revenue 5-saal ke sabse low par tha. Urals crude ka average price bhi gir kar $57.65 barrel ho gaya, jo pichle saal se 15% kam hai. Aur haan, 2025 mein Russian ruble bhi dollar ke saamne strong ho gaya tha (6.4% up), jisne export earnings ki value ko aur kam kar diya. April 3, 2026 tak rate tha 80.20 RUB per USD.
Ab baat karte hain budget ki. Russia ko is saal 5.6 trillion roubles (GDP ka 2.6%) ka budget deficit face karna pad sakta hai, mainly high military spending ki wajah se. Kuch reports toh yeh bhi keh rahi hain ki defense costs official numbers se double ho sakti hain, jo state budget ka lagbhag aadha hissa le lenge. Is situation mein unko apna National Wellbeing Fund use karna pad raha hai aur borrowing bhi badhani pad rahi hai.
Iske alawa, sanctions aur inke 'shadow fleet' tankers ko ho rahi issues bhi economy ko unstable bana rahi hain. Ukraine dwara energy facilities, jaise refineries par kiye gaye attacks ne bhi domestic supply ko disrupt kiya hai aur repairs kaafi costly ho rahe hain. Analysts ka maanna hai ki Russia ki economy ek 'negative equilibrium' mein hai, jahan reserves kam hain aur bahari shocks se aasani se asar pad sakta hai.
Aage ka outlook kya hai? Short term mein toh oil prices geopolitical risks ke karan high rehne ki ummeed hai. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expect kar raha hai ki Brent crude agle 2 mahine $95 se upar rahega, phir Q3 mein $80 se neeche aur saal ke end tak $70 ke aas paas aa jayega. Trading Economics ne bhi crude oil ko 2026 Q1 tak average $106.45 aur 12 mahine mein $113.72 expect kiya hai. Lekin yeh sab Middle East conflicts kitne lambe chalte hain aur Strait of Hormuz se shipping kab start hoti hai, is par nirbhar karta hai. Price increase ki wajah se analysts ne major energy companies ke earnings forecasts to badha diye hain, par Russia ki overall financial stability toh global energy market aur unke khud ke financial management par hi tikegi.