Whalesbook
Okay, toh suno! OPEC+ ne June ke liye oil output mein 188,000 barrels per day ki modest hike ka plan banaya hai. Yeh sab lag raha hai ki market ko stable karne ki koshish hai. Lekin, asal mein toh Iran aur US ke beech jo drama chal raha hai, usne Strait of Hormuz ko practically block kar diya hai. Isse pure world ki oil trade par itna huge impact pada hai ki OPEC+ ki yeh chhoti si hike ekdum insignificant lag rahi hai.
Yaad rakho, Strait of Hormuz se roz 20 million barrels oil nikalti hai, jo ki duniya ki 20% consumption hai! Ab jab yeh route band hai, toh Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, aur UAE jaise bade players ne milkar lagbhag 9.1 million barrels per day ki supply hold pe daal di hai. Toh jab tak Hormuz se shipping wapas shuru nahi hoti, yeh planned hike toh sirf kagaz pe hi rahegi. Experts bol rahe hain ki is situation ko normal hone mein hafte ya shayad mahine bhi lag sakte hain.
Is supply mein kami aur geopolitical tensions ki wajah se crude oil prices ekdum ud gaye hain. Brent crude $108 se $112 per barrel tak chala gaya hai, aur WTI bhi $101 se $102 per barrel ke aas paas hai. Yeh levels kaafi high hain! Analysts bhi ab apni forecasts adjust kar rahe hain. S&P Global Ratings ne 2026 ke liye price forecast $15 tak badha diya hai, aur Goldman Sachs ne Q4 2026 ke liye Brent crude ka target $90 kar diya hai. Haalanki, J.P. Morgan ka forecast $60/bbl hai, jo thoda conservative hai, par EIA toh Q2 2026 mein prices $115/bbl tak pahunchne ka andaaza laga raha hai. Is sab se inflation badhne ka risk toh pakka hai.
Jab gulf se supply kam hoti hai, toh sabki nazar US shale production par jaati hai. Lekin yahan se bhi zyada relief milne ki ummeed kam hai. Analysts bol rahe hain ki US shale production 13.5 se 13.6 million barrels per day ke aas paas hi plateau karegi aur zyada nahi badhegi. Iska matlab hai ki market mein supply ki kami bani rahegi, bilkul wahi scene jo 1970s mein energy crisis ke time hua tha.
Aur toh aur, sabse bada twist toh yeh hai ki United Arab Emirates (UAE) ne 1st May 2026 ko OPEC+ se apna exit announce kar diya! UAE, OPEC+ mein teesra sabse bada player tha, toh iske jaane se cartel ki power aur influence kaafi kam ho gayi hai. Ab Saudi Arabia par aur zyada responsibility aa gayi hai price stabilise karne ki. UAE ke paas capacity toh hai, par Hormuz blockade ki wajah se woh sab use nahi kar pa rahe. Agar yeh conflict lamba chala, toh prices aur zyada bhagne ke chances hain.
So overall, market ka outlook abhi bilkul uncertain hai. Kuch experts bol rahe hain ki supply ki kami ki wajah se prices high rahenge, jabki kuch long-term demand trends ko dekh kar price kami ka andaaza laga rahe hain. OPEC+, jismein ab ek bada member kam ho gaya hai aur jo geopolitical challenges face kar raha hai, woh ab khud se zyada kuch nahi kar sakta. Sabki nazar ab US aur Iran ke beech tension kam hone par hai. Agar yeh scene theek hua, toh prices turant gir sakte hain. Lekin jab tak Hormuz open nahi hota, market mein yeh uthal-puthal bani rahegi.