Aakhir Giraavat Ka Reason Kya Hai?
Is stock ke itne girne ka sabse bada reason hai investor ka cautious hona, kyunki results se pehle performance mein thodi kami aane ke asaar hain. Pichhle saal NALCO ne kamaal ki performance dikhai thi, stock dugna ho gaya tha, lekin abhi market sentiment sector-wide pressure aur commodity prices se affect ho raha hai.
Technicals Kya Kehte Hain?
Friday, January 30, 2026 ko NALCO ka stock lagbhag 9% gir kar ₹384.60 ke aas-paas trade kar raha tha. Yeh sab company ke December quarter ke financial results announce hone se pehle hua. Reports bata rahi hain ki revenue saal dar saal 3.5% kam ho sakta hai, jo ki ₹4,499 crore rehne ka andaaza hai (pichhle saal ₹4,662 crore tha). EBITDA mein bhi 8% ki kami aane ki ummeed hai, jo ₹2,149 crore ho sakta hai (₹2,328 crore se). Margins bhi 200 basis points se zyada kam ho kar 47.8% tak aa sakte hain. Lekin, achhi baat yeh hai ki pichhle quarter ke comparison mein margins improve hone ki probability hai, jiska main reason Aluminium segment ki better performance hai kyunki commodity prices badhi hain.
Fundamental Analysis Aur Sector Ka Scene
NALCO ki market cap abhi ₹78,700 crore ke aas-paas hai, aur iska P/E ratio around 11-12 chal raha hai (January 2026 end tak). Company ki operational efficiency acchi hai, ROCE 44% ke aas-paas hai. Aluminium prices toh acchi hain, par Alumina prices mein thodi kami aana ek chota headwind ho sakta hai. Kotak Institutional Equities ka andaaza hai ki Alumina sales 3 lakh tonnes aur Aluminium sales 1.15 lakh tonnes ho sakti hain, jismein Alumina EBITDA ₹410 crore aur Aluminium EBITDA ₹1,500 crore reh sakta hai.
Indian Aluminium market futuristic dikh rahi hai, jo 6.27% CAGR se grow hone ki ummeed hai 2030 tak. India toh waise bhi China ke baad doosra bada producer hai. Lekin Friday ko poore metals sector mein badi girawat aayi thi, jiska asar NALCO par bhi dikha. Yahan tak ki competitor Vedanta ka stock bhi 8% gira, bhale hi unhone accha results dikhaya ho. Wahi, Hindalco Industries toh record high par tha ₹984.8 par January 27, 2026 ko.
Aage Kya Dekhna Hai?
Ab sabki nazar company ki guidance par rahegi jo earnings call mein milegi January 30, 2026 ko shaam 17:00 IST mein. Investors yeh jaanana chahenge ki domestic demand ka kya outlook hai aur company ke future capex plans kya hain. Company ka net profit lagbhag ₹1,555 crore rehne ka andaaza hai, jo pichhle saal ke barabar hi hoga.