Whalesbook
Toh bhaiyo aur behno, National Aluminium Company (NACL) ka Q4FY26 ka result aaya hai aur numberz kaafi mast lag rahe hain! Company ne metal prices ka full fayda uthaya, jo quarter-on-quarter 14% badh kar USD 3,494 per tonne ho gaye. Isse thoda volume kam hone ke baad bhi performance acchi rahi.
Cost Cutting Aur Domestic Sales Ka Kamaal
Ek toh prices upar, upar se cost control bhi zordaar. Power aur fuel costs kam hui kyunki company ab zyada captive coal use kar rahi hai. Lagbhag 4 million tonne coal ka use ho raha hai total ~7.2 million tonne requirement mein se. Employee costs bhi kam hue hain, jisse bottom line strong hui. Management ko lagta hai FY27 mein aur bhi power cost savings hongi.
Company ne apne sales ka focus bhi domestic market par badhaya hai, jahan volume double ho gaya hai year-on-year. Aur haan, jo naya 1 million tonnes per annum ka refinery ban raha hai, usse FY27 mein 0.2 million tonnes volume add hone ki umeed hai, agar sab time pe finish ho gaya toh.
Valuation vs Growth: Thoda Tension?
Prabhudas Lilladher jaise analysts ne 'HOLD' rating ko maintain rakha hai, aur target price ko thoda badha kar ₹413 kar diya hai (pehla ₹407 tha). Lekin stock abhi ₹407.60 par trade kar raha hai, jo future valuation (FY27 ke liye 5.5x EV aur FY28 ke liye 4.9x EV) ke hisaab se kafi full lag raha hai. Matlab, abhi ka performance accha hai, par aage volume growth se zyada expectations nahi hain.
NACL ka market cap ab ₹73,500 crore hai aur P/E ratio lagbhag 12.6x hai. Agar peers se compare karein toh Hindalco (P/E 14.4x, market cap ₹2.33 lakh crore) aur Vedanta (market cap ₹1.13 lakh crore) ke muqable valuation thoda kam dikhta hai.
Aage Kya Ho Sakta Hai?
Global aluminium prices ko lekar experts mein alag alag rai hai. Kuch ko USD 3,000 tak jane ki umeed hai, toh kuch ko USD 2,350 tak girne ki. India mein toh demand acchi hai construction aur automotive sector se, par NACL ka growth toh uske naye refinery par hi depend karta hai.
Sabse bada risk yahi hai ki naya refinery time par start ho aur smoothly chalne lage. Agar der hui toh volume growth slow rahega aur current valuation bahut zyada lagne lagega. Global prices ka upar-neeche hona bhi risk hai. Bade players ki tarah NACL ke paas utni diversification nahi hai, isliye market crash hone par zyada impact ho sakta hai.
Overall, Prabhudas Lilladher ka 'HOLD' recommendation yahi dikha raha hai ki market ne current strength ko price mein adjust kar liya hai. Ab sab kuch us naye refinery ke execution par depend karta hai.