Whalesbook
Toh scene yeh hai ki Pradhan Mantri Narendra Modi ne public se request ki hai ki jo zaroori nahi hai, woh gold purchase postpone kar dein. Is appeal ka direct impact pada desh ke bade jewellery stocks par. Titan Company, Kalyan Jewellers India, aur Senco Gold & Diamonds ke shares ekdum se 10% se lekar 14% tak gir gaye.
Yeh sab isliye ho raha hai kyunki India ke foreign exchange reserves ko lekar tension badh rahi hai. Haalanki reserves $690 billion ke aas paas hain, jo 10-11 mahine ke imports ko cover kar sakte hain, lekin yeh apne record high se kam ho gaye hain. Plus, Indian Rupee bhi kaafi weak chal raha hai, sabse kamzor Asian currencies mein se ek.
Aur ek badi chinta hai gold imports ki. Fiscal year 2025-26 mein, gold imports $71.98 billion tak pahunch gaye, volume kam hone ke baad bhi. Isse trade deficit bhi badh kar $333.2 billion ho gaya hai.
Ab retailers ne bhi smart move khela hai. Woh ab gold recycling aur exchange programs ko zyada promote kar rahe hain. Aim yeh hai ki desh mein jo 25,000+ tonnes household gold pada hai, usko use karein. Tanishq jaise brands mein toh ab adhe se zyada transactions exchange ke through ho rahe hain. Industry walon ka kehna hai ki bahut saara sector pehle se hi recycled gold use karta hai, toh isse thoda impact kam ho sakta hai.
Government ki ek scheme hai Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS), jiska maksad logon ke paas pade idle gold ko interest wale products mein badalna hai aur imports par dependance kam karna hai. Par yaar, is scheme ka success ab tak mehla mila-jhula hai. Collections kam hain aur logon ko isme hissa lene mein dikkatein aa rahi hain. Scheme ko improve karne ke proposals chal rahe hain, par dekhna hoga ki yeh kitni effective ho paati hai.
Market ne ab in stocks ki valuations par bhi sawal uthane shuru kar diye hain. Jaise Titan Company, jo market mein sabse aage hai, uska P/E ratio lagbhag 70-80x chal raha hai. ROCE 28.86% aur ROE 32.80% hai, jo achha hai, par itni high valuation ke liye growth expectations bhi bohot high hain. Kalyan Jewellers ka P/E ratio thoda kam, 29-34x hai, ROCE 17.88% aur ROE 21.89% hai. Senco Gold & Diamonds ka P/E ratio 33.11 tha early 2025 mein. Sector ki revenue FY26 mein 14-16% grow hone ki ummeed hai, par filhal import ki chinta aur consumer spending kam hone ka dar bana hua hai.
Bhai, desh ki gold imports par dependence ek badi problem hai. Yeh current account deficit aur rupee ko strain karta hai, khaas kar jab global tensions aur commodity prices high ho. PM ki appeal seedha demand kam na kare, par logo ko cautious kar sakti hai. Aur agar demand kam hui toh sales volume par bhi asar padega. World Gold Council bhi kehta hai ki recycled gold ka supply mein contribution pehle bhi kam raha hai. High valuations wale stocks jaise Titan ke liye, agar demand kam hui ya import costs badhi toh mushkil ho jayegi.
Analysts abhi filhal jewellery stocks ko lekar kaafi cautious hain. Unka kehna hai ki yeh sell-off zyada tar investor sentiment ki wajah se hua hai, na ki company ke fundamentals kamzor hone se. Long term mein toh wedding season aur organised retailers ke liye consumption theek hi lagti hai. Lekin filhal, government ki advice, gold ke high prices, aur import ki chinta milkar ek complicated picture bana rahi hai. Aage kya hoga yeh toh waqt hi batayega, par cultural demand ko economic realities se balance karna aur domestic gold reserves ko use karna bahut zaroori hoga.