Whalesbook
Ab dekho, ye jo oil price itna bhaga hai na, iske peeche sabse bada reason hai Iran aur America ke beech chalta hua tashan. Strait of Hormuz, jahan se duniya ka kafi saara oil trade hota hai, wahan khatra badh gaya hai. Is wajah se Brent crude $110 dollar cross kar gaya aur WTI bhi $107 dollar ke paas pahunch gaya. Ye prices pichle kuch hafton mein 50% se bhi zyada badh chuki hain aur ab ye kuch saalon ke high level par hain.
Aur ek aur important baat hai - May 16, 2026 ko US ne ek waiver khatam kar diya. Ye waiver Russia ke sea-borne oil sales ko allow karta tha. India aur Indonesia jaise deshon ne iski date badhane ko kaha tha kyunki unhe supply ki dikkat thi, par US nahi mana. Ab isse Russian oil market mein aur tight ho jayega. Strait of Hormuz se toh lagbhag 20-25% global oil trade hota hai, aur agar wahan security issues ke chalte kam traffic hua toh supply ki dikkat aur badh jayegi. Iran khud bhi April ke baad se koi seaborne crude export nahi kar paya hai.
Ab jab tel mahanga hoga toh sabse pehle toh inflation badhegi. Experts keh rahe hain ki oil price mein agar 10% ka jump aaya toh CPI mein 35 basis points tak ka izafa ho sakta hai teen mahine mein. Petrol pump par bhi rates badh gaye hain, ab average $4.50 per gallon ho gaya hai. Morgan Stanley ke analysts keh rahe hain ki agar Strait of Hormuz band raha toh June tak support bhi kamzor pad sakta hai. Energy ETFs toh mazboot chal rahe hain, jinke returns 18-19% tak hain ek saal mein.
Market mein ye sabhi problems chal rahi hain, par kuch risks bhi hain. Strait of Hormuz ki jagah koi dusra bada sea route nahi hai, isliye wahan disturbance ka seedha asar padega. Agar diplomatic tensions kam hui toh prices tezi se gir bhi sakti hain. Agar prices zyada time tak high rahi toh log aur businesses kharcha kam kar denge, jis se demand ghategi. Alag-alag experts ki rai bhi alag hai. J.P. Morgan ko Brent $97 ke aas-paas rehne ki ummeed hai 2026 ke liye, aur long term mein toh $60 bhi dekh sakte hain. EIA bol raha hai ki May/June mein $106 rahenge phir 2027 tak $79 tak aa sakte hain. Ye sab US-Iran situation aur shipping routes par hi depend karta hai.