Whalesbook
Toh, yeh jo rupee gir raha hai na, iske kai reasons hain. Sabse bada toh ye West Asia mein chal raha gadbad aur demand badhne ki wajah se crude oil prices ka bhagna hai. Uske saath, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) apna paisa nikal ke safe jagah par le ja rahe hain, isse rupee par pressure aur badh gaya hai. Aur haan, US Federal Reserve ka 'hawkish stance' bhi dollar ko strong bana raha hai, jo rupee ke liye aur bura hai. Is saal ab tak rupee 7% gira hai, Asia mein sabse zyada kamzor currencies mein se ek ban gaya hai.
Ab iska seedha asar apni Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) par pad raha hai. Ye companies tel kharidne aur bechne mein roz lagbhag ₹1,000 Crore ka nuksaan utha rahi hain! Matlab, unki pockets full khali ho rahi hain. Agar aisa chalta raha toh sarkar ko bhi support dena pad sakta hai, jisse public finance par bhi load aayega. India toh apna 85% crude oil import karta hai, toh yeh double blow India ke liye imported inflation ko aur badha raha hai. Isse desh mein mehngai control karna mushkil ho raha hai.
Agar baki Asian currencies se compare karein toh apna rupee ka performance khaas nahi raha hai. Pehle bhi jab oil price bada tha ya paisa bahar gaya tha, tab current account deficit aur inflation bada tha, jaise 2013 aur 2018 mein hua tha. Aur haan, apna stock market bhi is news se vulnerable hai. Nifty 50 ka P/E ratio abhi 22-24x ke aas paas hai, matlab sasta nahi hai. Jab foreign investors paisa nikal rahe hain, toh market mein aur risk badh jata hai.
Yeh jo rupee ki kamzori hai na, woh dikhati hai ki India ki economy structural problems se guzar rahi hai, jo imports par bahut depend karti hai. RBI bhi apni foreign exchange reserves aur dusri policy goals ko dekhte hue currency market mein limited hi intervene kar sakti hai. Agar rupee aise hi kamzor raha toh inflation badhega aur RBI ko interest rates badhani pad sakti hain, jisse growth slow ho sakti hai. Yeh ek tough balancing act hai. Analysts bhi filhal rupee ko lekar bahut positive nahi hain. Unko lagta hai ki jab tak oil prices aur global interest rates stable nahi hote, rupee mein volatility rahegi. OMCs ki situation bhi abhi delicate hai.