Whalesbook
Global Markets Mein Tension, India Mein Gold Solid!
Sabse pehle toh, Middle East mein chal rahi tensions ko dekho. UAE mein drone strike ki khabar ne markets mein tension badha di hai, jisse Brent crude oil prices $111 a barrel ke paar chali gayi hain. Ye sab dekh kar lagta hai gold ko safe haven hone ke naate upar bhagna chahiye, lekin bhai, abhi market mein dusre factors bhi play kar rahe hain. Strait of Hormuz ki uncertainty ne crude ko aur bhi mehenga kar diya hai, jisse is mahine 16% ka jump aaya hai crude mein. Normally ye inflation aur gold ke liye positive hota hai.
Fed Rate Hike Ka Khauf Aur Dollar Ka Zor
Dusri taraf, US Federal Reserve ke interest rates badhane ki charcha tez ho rahi hai. Recent US data kaafi strong aaya hai, isse lag raha hai ki Fed rates ko high rakh sakta hai. Iske saath hi, US Dollar Index (DXY) 99.3311 tak pahunch gaya hai aur US Treasury yields 4.63% par hain. Jab dollar aur US bonds mehange hote hain, toh gold investors ke liye less attractive ho jata hai, isliye international gold prices kam ho rahi hain. Global prices ek mahine ke low par hain.
India Ka Special Deal: Duty Hike Ka Kamaal!
Ab aate hain asli difference par. Jabki international prices gir rahi hain, India mein MCX gold prices isliye strong hain kyunki Indian government ne 13 May, 2026 ko gold import duty ko 6% se double karke 15% kar diya hai. Ye sab rupee ko support karne aur dollar outflow rokne ke liye kiya gaya hai. Is duty hike ne India mein imported gold ki cost kaafi badha di hai, roughly $704 per ounce tak. Is wajah se, domestic gold prices mein ek significant premium ban gaya hai, jo MCX gold ko international giri se bacha raha hai. Supply thodi tight hone se bhi ye premium maintain hai. Analyst keh rahe hain ki haal filhaal demand kam ho sakti hai, ya log unofficial channels pe ja sakte hain, par demand poori tarah khatm nahi hogi.
Analysts Kya Keh Rahe Hain Future Ke Liye?
Aage kya hoga? Analysts filhaal thode cautious hain lekin positive bhi. J.P. Morgan aur Goldman Sachs jaise bade players expect kar rahe hain ki 2026 ke end tak gold prices $4,900 se $5,400 per ounce ke beech rah sakti hain. Dr. Ravi Singh (Master Capital Services) ka kehna hai ki MCX gold mein ek technical pullback aa raha hai, par overall trend positive hai, higher highs aur higher lows ban rahe hain. Unki nazar mein immediate support ₹1,57,100 aur resistance ₹1,61,000 par hai. World Bank bhi expect kar raha hai ki 2026 mein precious metals prices mein 42% tak ka surge aa sakta hai.
Risks Bhi Hain Toh Sahi!
Lekin haan, kuch risks bhi hain. High interest rates gold ko kam attractive bana sakte hain, kyunki log paisa bonds wagera mein laga sakte hain. Strong dollar bhi pressure bana sakta hai. Silver ki performance bhi interesting hai, agar woh gold se zyada perform kare toh gold se investment udhar shift ho sakta hai. Filhaal, gold $4,500 ke niche nahi gir raha, jo achha sign hai, lekin agar ye level toota toh bearish trend continue ho sakta hai.