Whalesbook
Global Market Ka Scene
Dekho, abhi global energy market mein bade shifts ho rahe hain. Strait of Hormuz jaisa vital shipping route ab bilkul band sa ho gaya hai. Reports keh rahi hain ki wahan se 90% kam ships nikal rahe hain, pehle 100 ships roz jaate the, ab sirf 6-7.
Is wajah se, duniya bhar ki countries ab direct, bilateral deals kar rahi hain Iran jaise suppliers ke saath. Ye deals itni transparent nahi hain, jisse risk badh jata hai, especially India jaise import pe nirbhar countries ke liye. Brent crude ka price abhi bhi $109.47 ke aas paas hai, jo dikhata hai ki supply abhi bhi tight hai.
India Pe Kya Asar Padega?
India energy imports pe kaafi depend karta hai, 88-90% crude oil aur 60% LPG hum bahar se mangate hain. Strait of Hormuz band hone se hum direct affect ho rahe hain.
Isi wajah se, Moody's Ratings ne India ka economic growth forecast 0.8% kam karke 6.0% kar diya hai 2026 ke liye. Rupee bhi USD ke muqable 95.8900 ke level pe weak ho gaya hai. Aur to aur, inflation bhi 4.5% tak pahunch sakti hai 2026 mein.
Opaque Deals Ka Risk
Ye jo bina transparency wali deals ho rahi hain, ye aur bhi risky hain. Inmein price manipulation aur supply rukne ka danger zyada hai. Japan aur South Korea toh US se oil le rahe hain, but India Iran pe focus kar raha hai.
Ye situation sirf oil nahi, balki LNG aur fertilizers ko bhi affect karegi, jisse poori economy pe pressure aayega. Moody's ka kehna hai ki 2026 aur 2027 mein growth 6.0% ke aas paas rahegi, jo 2025 ke 7.5% se kaafi kam hai. International Energy Agency ne isko global oil market ki history ki sabse badi supply disruption bataya hai. Is situation ko handle karna kaafi mushkil hoga.