Whalesbook
Arey yaar, kya ho raha hai gold ke saath?
Aaj April 13, 2026 ko Indian gold prices mein ekdum se tezi se gire hain. Specially, 24-carat gold 0.81% neeche aaya hai aur ab ₹151,400 per 10 grams mil raha hai. Pichhle din se yeh ₹1,230 kam hua hai. 22-carat wala bhi gira hai, ₹138,783 ho gaya hai. Matlab, gold jo normally market down hone par safe bet mana jata hai, woh abhi in sab pressures ke saamne halka pad gaya hai.
Oil ka bhandan aur Mehngai ka darr
Is sabke peeche ka main reason hai Middle East mein badhti hui tensions. US aur Iran ke beech peace talks fail hone ki khabar hai aur Strait of Hormuz par blockade ki bhi baat chal rahi hai. Is wajah se oil prices ekdum se rockets ki tarah upar bhaag gaye hain, jisse duniya bhar mein mehngai badhne ka khatra mandra raha hai. Upar se, US dollar bhi kafi strong ho gaya hai. Jab dollar strong hota hai, toh dollar ke alawa dusri currencies mein gold kharidna mehnga ho jata hai, aur dollar assets zyada attractive lagne lagte hain. Isi combination ki wajah se markets ko lag raha hai ki central banks, jaise US Federal Reserve, shayad interest rates jaldi kam na karein. Aur jab rates kam nahi hote, toh gold jaisi cheezein jin par koi interest nahi milta, woh thodi less attractive ho jati hain.
Global market ka impact aur Dollar ka khel
Globally dekhein toh COMEX gold futures $4,721.26 per ounce ke aas paas the April 13, 2026 ko. Yeh hafte bhar mein 5.70% gir chuke hain pichhle ek mahine mein, haalanki saal bhar pehle se abhi bhi kaafi upar hain. Silver bhi thoda gira hai, $74.30 per ounce par. India mein jo ₹151,400 per 10 grams ka rate hai, woh Dubai se lagbhag 5.50% zyada premium dikha raha hai. Pehle toh gold aur US dollar alag alag chalta tha, par ab kabhi kabhi dono saath mein bhi bhagte hain, khaas kar jab geopolitics mein changes aate hain. Lekin abhi, dollar hi safe haven ban gaya hai mehngai ke darr mein, jo dikhata hai ki central banks rates ko high rakhna pasand kar sakte hain. US Federal Reserve ne March meeting mein bhi yehi ishara diya tha ki woh rates ko lekar cautious hain aur jaldi kam karne ki koi umeed nahi hai. Markets ab April mein koi rate change expect nahi kar rahe hain. Toh aise mein gold hold karne ka opportunity cost badh jata hai, jo use mehngai ke against hedge karne ke liye kam attractive banata hai.
Safe Haven vs. Mehngai: Gold ka future kya hai?
Gold ka jo naam hai inflation aur market turmoil mein safe haven hone ka, woh ab challenge ho raha hai. India mein gold par jo premium chal raha hai, agar global prices aur gire toh domestic buying kam ho sakti hai. Plus, gold ETFs mein bhi badi giraawat dekhne ko mili hai, kuch toh 6% tak kam hue hain February ke end se. Ye sab dikha raha hai ki investors ka mood gold se thoda hat raha hai. Aisa tab ho raha hai jab oil ki wajah se mehngai badhne ka darr badh raha hai, pehle jisme rate cuts ki umeed thi. Haan, central banks strategic buying kar rahe hain, par short-term investors abhi thode hesitant lag rahe hain, jisse gold prices ke liye ek cautious outlook hai.
Analysts kya keh rahe hain?
Analysts ko lagta hai ki short term mein gold prices aur gir sakte hain. Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, ka kehna hai ki MCX Gold June futures ₹151,500 per 10 grams tak jaa sakta hai, kyunki international market mein trends weak hain. Kuch analysts thoda positive outlook de rahe hain kuch resistance levels ke saath, par overall sentiment caution wala hai. Investors abhi bhi geopolitical events aur central bank policy decisions ka wait kar rahe hain. Aage dekha jayega ki inflation data aur Federal Reserve ke next moves kya hote hain.