Whalesbook
Profit Margin Par Girawat Ka Khatra
Dekho, FY27 ke liye cement manufacturers ko operating profitability mein acchi khaasi girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Analyst bol rahe hain ki per tonne earnings ₹820-₹870 tak aa sakti hain, jo FY26 ke ₹950-₹980 se kam hai. Is sabke peeche sabse bada haath geopolitical tension ka hai, jiski wajah se West Asia mein dikkat hai aur inputs ka rate badh raha hai.
Fuel Aur Logistics Ka Bhari Kharch
Cement companies ke total operating cost ka 50-55% hissa power, fuel aur selling expenses mein jaata hai. Middle East mein chal rahe conflicts ki wajah se crude oil prices badh gayi hain, jisse petcoke aur diesel jaisi cheezon ke daam bhi badh rahe hain. April 2026 mein petcoke 19% mehenga hua hai, aur May 2026 mein diesel ₹3.9 per litre tak badh gaya. ICRA ka kehna hai ki FY27 mein crude oil ka average price $95 per barrel reh sakta hai, jo FY26 ke $72 se kaafi zyada hai.
Price Hike Se Kitni Rahat?
Is badhte kharch ko manage karne ke liye, cement companies 6-8% tak price increase karne ka soch rahi hain. Lekin lagta nahi hai ki yeh price hike power aur fuel ke 10-12% tak badhne wale kharch ko pura kar payegi. Industry mein overcapacity kaafi hai, jismein utilization rates 65-70% ke aas-paas hain, isliye companies zyada price increase nahi kar sakti. Pahle bhi ₹15-₹20 per bag price badhane ki koshish fail ho chuki hai.
Industry Outlook Aur Competition
UltraTech Cement, Ambuja Cements, aur Shree Cement jaise bade players is situation ko manage kar rahe hain. FY27 mein infrastructure aur housing demand ki wajah se volume growth 6-8% rehne ki ummeed hai, lekin profitability ek bada concern bana hua hai. Crisil Intelligence ka maan'na hai ki FY27 mein operating margins 150-200 basis points (yani 16%-18% tak) gir sakte hain, jo FY26 mein 18%-20% the. Jo companies zyada imported fuel par depend karti hain, unhe aur mushkil hogi. Industry imported petcoke ka use kam karke domestic thermal coal ki taraf jaa sakti hai.