Whalesbook
Dekho bhai, is saal 2025-26 mein India mein sugar production ka record bana hai, lagbhag 320 se 325 lakh tonnes tak pahunch gaya hai, ethanol mein diversion ke baad bhi. States jaise Maharashtra aur Karnataka mein acchi kheti hui. Kam mills chal rahi hain, par woh zyada capacity use kar rahi hain. Lekin is record output ke baad bhi, mills ekdum financial pressure mein hain.
Aise kaise chalta hai? Cost vs Price!
Asal problem yeh hai ki sugar ka average ex-mill price around ₹3,850 per quintal hai, jabki production cost aa raha hai ₹4,100 se ₹4,160 per quintal tak. Matlab seedha ₹250 se ₹310 ka nuksaan per quintal ho raha hai. Isse mills ki cash flow par bahut bura asar pad raha hai aur woh kisanon ko time par payment nahi kar paa rahi hain.
Government Prices ka Bura Haal
Is sabka ek bada reason government ki prices hain jo badhi nahi hain. Minimum Selling Price (MSP) February 2019 se hi ₹31 per kg par atki hui hai. Jabki, kisanon se ganna kharidne ka rate (FRP) badh kar ₹355 per quintal ho gaya hai 2025-26 season ke liye, jo pichhle saal ₹340 aur 2019-20 mein ₹275 tha. Yeh gap lagatar badh raha hai aur mills ke liye sustainable nahi hai. Iske alawa, ethanol ke procurement rates bhi 2022-23 se same hi hain, juice/syrup se ₹65.61 per litre aur B-heavy molasses se ₹60.73 per litre. Yeh prices bhi nahi badhi hain, jisse mills ko ek important revenue source nahi mil raha.
Kisanon ke paise atke, Industry Maang rahi Hai Help
Iss financial stress ka seedha asar kisanon par ho raha hai. Mid-February 2026 tak, kisanon ke na diye gaye paise (arrears) badh kar ₹16,000 se ₹16,087 crore ho gaye hain. Maharashtra mein hi March 31, 2026 tak ₹4,898 crore ke cane dues the. Time par payment na hone se kisanon ka trust kam ho raha hai aur future mein woh ganna kam ugna chahenge, jisse future mein sugar supply par risk aa sakta hai. Industry ki maang hai ki MSP ko badha kar ₹41-₹41.66 per kg (yani ₹4,000 per quintal) kiya jaye, taaki yeh cost-realization gap bhar sake.
Company Valuations aur Global Scene
Badi listed sugar companies jaise Balrampur Chini Mills ka P/E ratio around 21.8-23.89 hai, market cap ₹9,762 crore. Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar ka P/E negative hai aur market cap ₹3,917 crore ke aas paas. Dwarikesh Sugar Industries ka P/E 34.28 se 43.85 hai, market cap ₹867 crore, aur debt-to-equity 86.04% hai. Dhampur Sugar Mills ka P/E 10.98-12.86 hai, lekin kuch reports negative P/E bhi dikha rahi hain. Global market mein bhi sugar prices giri hui hain, Brazil ke surplus ki wajah se, aur Indian production cost se bhi neeche hain.
Future Govt Policy Par Depend Karta Hai
Indian sugar sector ka future govt policy par bahut depend karta hai. MSP aur ethanol prices mein revision hona bahut zaroori hai taaki mills ki profitability badhe, farmer dues clear ho sakein aur sugarcane farming bani rahe. El Niño ka effect future crops par pad sakta hai. E20, E22 blending targets chal rahe hain. Overall, sugar industry future mein stable rahegi ya nahi, yeh Govt ke decisions par depend karta hai. MSP aur ethanol prices mein timely hike ke bina industry survive karna mushkil hai.