Whalesbook
Toh bhaiyo, West Asia mein chal rahe hangaame aur shipping lanes mein dikkat ke chalte, India ne apni energy imports ka poora pattern hi badal diya hai. Is March mein, jab crude oil ki khareedi Russia se lagbhag dugni ho gayi, toh wahi LPG aur LNG ka import dhamdham se gir gaya.
Ab dekho, Russia se crude oil ki khareedi mein 94% ka jabardast uphaan dekha gaya hai. March mein humne roz 2.06 million barrels tak import kiya, jo Feb ke 1.06 million barrels se kaafi zyada hai. Iss boom ki wajah se India ke total imports mein Russian crude ka hissa 46.8% tak pahunch gaya, jo pehle sirf 20.4% tha. Asal mein, India aur China milakar ab Russia ke oil exports ka 85% hissa kharid rahe hain. Indian Oil Corporation aur Reliance Industries jaise bade players isme sabse aage hain.
Dusri taraf, Strait of Hormuz jo duniya ke 20-21% oil aur 25% LNG ke liye vital route hai, wahan dikkatein aa gayi hain. Is wajah se India mein LPG imports mein 40% ki giraawat aayi. Reports bata rahi hain ki March mein LPG imports 1.12 million tonnes ho gayi, jo Feb mein 2.04 million tonnes thi. Aur tension toh tab badh gayi jab QatarEnergy ne force majeure declare kar diya, jiske baad Qatar se LNG ka import 92% tak gir gaya. Yeh force majeure, Iran ke missile attack se juda bataya ja raha hai, aur isse Qatar ki 17% LNG export capacity band ho gayi hai. Bata rahe hain ki iski repair mein 3 se 5 saal lag sakte hain.
Yeh crisis sirf India ke liye nahi, poore Asia ke liye badi problem hai, kyunki yeh region typically 60-80% crude imports ke liye Middle East par depend karta hai. Philippines jaise deshon ne bhi Russian crude mangwana shuru kar diya hai. India ne bhi apne suppliers ko 27 se badha kar 40 countries kar liya hai, aur ab 70% crude imports alternative sea routes se ho rahi hain. Public sector oil companies ne US se bhi annual LPG imports secure kar li hain. Domestic production se ab 60% demand poori ho rahi hai, aur petrol mein 20% ethanol blend bhi energy security badha raha hai.
Par bhaiyo, ye sab karne mein bhi kuch risks hain. Russia se discounts par oil kharidne mein Western countries se tangdi aa sakti hai. Qatar se long-term LNG supply band hona bhi ek bada challenge hai. Agar Hormuz mein gadbad badhi toh India ko saal ka $9-11 billion tak ka nuksan ho sakta hai. Aur energy prices badhne se khane peene ka saman bhi mehenga ho sakta hai. Analysts bol rahe hain ki April mein bhi Russian oil ki khareedi jaari rahegi. Iran aur Venezuela se bhi supply milne ki umeed hai. Geopolitical tension toh chalegi, par India apna game khel raha hai suppliers ko diversify karke, domestic production badha kar aur alternative fuels mein invest karke. Yehi sab India ki economic growth aur uske 2070 net-zero goals ke liye crucial hoga.