Whalesbook
Geopolitics Se Zyada Chinta Interest Rates Ki?
Samajh lo baat ko, jab duniya mein conflicts chal rahe hain aur oil prices bhi badh rahe hain, tab gold jaisi cheezein safe-haven banti hain. Lekin haal filhaal India mein gold aur silver ke prices isliye gire hain kyunki market ki nazar macroeconomic factors par hai, na ki war par.
India Mein Kya Chal Raha Hai?
MCX par gold futures around ₹1.46 lakh per 10 grams trading kar rahe hain, aur silver futures ₹2.28 lakh per kilogram ke aaspaas hain. Global markets mein bhi spot gold $4,467.30 per ounce ke paas hai. Jabki Brent crude $115.30 per barrel tak pahunch raha hai, interest rate hike ki dar aur mazboot dollar bullion par pressure bana rahe hain.
Fed Aur Inflation Ka Khel
US Federal Reserve ne March mein rates ko 3.5% aur 3.75% ke beech rakha hai aur is saal sirf ek hi rate cut ki sambhavna batai hai. Inflation 2.7% ke aaspaas rehne ki umeed hai, jo Fed ke 2% target se upar hai. Is situation mein gold jaisa asset jisme koi interest nahi milta, kam attractive ho jata hai. Plus, jab dollar strong hota hai toh international buyers ke liye gold mehnga ho jata hai.
Silver Ko China Se Mila Support
Silver, gold ke muqable thoda better perform kar raha hai. Iska main reason hai China se aati industrial demand. Haal hi mein, China ne 8 saal mein sabse zyada silver import kiya hai, sirf February mein 470 tons! Yeh strong demand silver ko thoda support de rahi hai.
Geopolitical Risks Ab Peeche Hain
Aam taur par, Middle East ke conflicts aur oil prices badhne se gold ko boost milta hai. Lekin is baar, RBI dwara rupee ko support karne ke liye kiye gaye actions aur macroeconomic worries zyada dominant hain. Gold ne is mahine apne 2008 ke baad sabse badi monthly fall dikhai hai.
Aage Kya?
Analysts ka kehna hai ki medium term mein precious metals mein bullishness reh sakti hai, kyunki geopolitical tensions aur central banks ki buying support karegi. Lekin short term mein, rates aur dollar ka pressure nazar aayega. Investors US economic data aur Fed comments par nazar rakhenge. Silver ki demand stable rehne ki ummeed hai, jabki gold ka future interest rate outlook par depend karega.