Whalesbook
Yaar, elections khatam ho gaye hain, aur ab sarkaar ko ek bahut hi mushkil decision lena padega, specially fuel prices ko lekar.
Dekho, India toh oil imports par bahut depend karta hai. Aur West Asia mein jo lambi chal rahi problems hain na, uski wajah se import costs bohot badh gaye hain. Ab sarkaar ye costs absorb nahi kar sakti. Jab Brent crude prices $100 cross kar gayi, toh operational problems bhi badh gayi hain. Daily pata hai kitna nuksaan ho raha hai? Lagbhag ₹1,000 crore!
Pehle jab crude $126 pe tha, tab petrol par ₹24 per litre aur diesel par ₹30 per litre ka subsidy sarkaar de rahi thi. Iske saath ₹170,000 crore ka excise duty cut bhi kiya tha taaki consumers aur oil companies ko relief mile. Par ab ye sab sambhalna mushkil ho raha hai. Oil marketing companies ko is quarter ke end tak ₹50,000 crore se zyada ka loss ho sakta hai, aur gas mein bhi lagbhag ₹20,000 crore ka nuksaan hai, jisse industries bhi affect ho rahi hain.
Aur ye jo West Asia mein crisis chal raha hai na, Strait of Hormuz band hone ki wajah se cheezein aur kharab ho gayi hain. Ye toh India ke liye energy ka main route hai. Ye problem 1970s ke Arab oil embargo se bhi zyada serious hai. Sirf crude prices hi nahi badhi, balki marine insurance premiums aur freight costs bhi sky-high ho gaye hain. Ab ships ko Cape of Good Hope se ghuma kar jaana pad raha hai, jisme 2 se 3 hafte extra lag rahe hain aur shipping cost 15-20% tak badh gaya hai. Qatar ka Ras Laffan LNG terminal band hone se supply chain aur bhi tight ho gayi hai.
Ab oil companies ki financial health bhi pressure mein hai. Jaise Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) ka market cap lagbhag ₹2.07 trillion hai, aur TTM P/E ratio 5.5 ke aas paas. BPCL ka market cap ₹1.33 trillion hai aur P/E ratio 5.7. HPCL ka market cap ₹83 billion aur P/E 5.6. Ye P/E ratios industry average 17.30 se kaafi kam hain, matlab market inke future earnings ko lekar cautious hai.
Companies jaise IOC ka sales growth pichle 5 saal mein sirf 9.40% raha hai aur return on equity 13.1% (last 3 saal). HPCL ka profit margin 3.55% TTM hai, jo industry average 7.51% se kam hai. Pichhle oil shocks mein bhi India ne kaafi financial strain dekha hai, aur excise duty cuts ne long-term debt badhaya hai. Current account deficit bhi badh raha hai import costs ki wajah se.
Duniya bhar mein bhi yahi haal hai. China, Germany, UK jaise countries ne 20% se 27% tak fuel prices badha di hain. Japan, Italy, Spain mein toh 30% se bhi zyada hike hui hai. India abhi tak prices nahi badha raha tha, jisse ek financial crisis aa gayi hai.
Analysts keh rahe hain ki retailers ko koi immediate financial support nahi milega. Global situation uncertain hai, Strait of Hormuz mein conflict chal sakta hai, jis se prices aur shipping routes par pressure bana rahega. IMF ne bhi India ko advise kiya hai ki subsidy system ko market ke hisaab se reform karein.
Overall, ye high crude costs absorb karna aur oil companies ke losses bahut risky hain. Sarkaar ne support toh diya hai par ab ye manageable nahi hai. Geopolitical uncertainty aur badhti costs, insurance premiums, aur freight charges sab risks badha rahe hain. Agar prices badhi toh inflation badhegi aur public bhi naraz hogi. Companies ki slow growth aur low returns unhein aur vulnerable bana rahe hain. Market toh pehle se hi ye risks samajh raha hai.