Whalesbook
Abe suno, FY26 mein toh India ke ETFs mein kamaal ho gaya! ₹1.81 lakh crore ka record investment aaya hai, jo FY22 ke purane peak ko double se bhi zyada kar deta hai. Pata hai, FY21 se FY25 tak toh saal mein bas ₹46,000 se ₹83,000 crore hi aa rahe the.
Lekin ab sab badal gaya hai. Ye sirf diversification nahi hai, log clearly gold aur silver jaise safe assets mein bhag rahe hain. Kyunki duniya bhar mein uncertainty aur inflation ka darr bahut badh gaya hai, aur stock market valuations pe bhi sawaal uth rahe hain. Jo financial gadbad pehle hui thi, bilkul waisa hi scenario lag raha hai.
Aur bhai, is baar gold aur silver ne toh kamaal hi kar diya! FY26 mein total inflows ka 55% toh in commodity ETFs mein gaya, jabki FY24 mein toh ye 17% se bhi kam tha. Sirf Gold ETFs mein ₹68,868 crore aaye, jo total ka 38% hai. Silver ETFs mein bhi ₹30,412 crore ( 16.8%) aa gaye. Pehli baar, ye dono milkar equity ETFs (jisme ₹77,780 crore, yaani 42.9% aaye) se zyada aa gaye. Ye sirf safety nahi, prices bhi toh bhagi hain! March 2026 tak gold ETFs ka total manage hone wala paisa 191% badh kar ₹1.71 lakh crore se upar ho gaya. Silver ETFs mein bhi demand aur price jump dono dikhe, khaas kar solar aur EV sectors se demand badhne se. Global level pe bhi 2025 mein commodity ETFs mein $106.65 billion aaye, jisme 83% gold ka tha. India bhi iss trend mein badi role play kar raha hai.
Lekin bhai, ye record inflow aur price jump mein risk bhi bahut hai. March 2026 mein toh gold prices 10% se bhi zyada gir gayi thi ek hi mahine mein, jo 2013 ke baad sabse badi girawat hai. Iska reason tha US-Iran conflict jisse oil prices badhi aur inflation ka darr wapas aa gaya, jisse Federal Reserve ne rate cuts postpone kar diye. Isse pata chalta hai ki gold prices kitni volatile ho sakti hain, trading volumes aur margin calls se.
Silver ki demand industries se abhi bhi hai, par strong dollar aur interest rates badhne se pressure hai. Analysts keh rahe hain ki agar speculators ne exit kiya toh price gir sakti hai. JP Morgan ne silver ke liye $81 ka average target diya hai, aur Bank of America toh $135-$309 tak ka bull case bata raha hai. Aur haan, SEBI ne bhi gold ETFs ke liye naye rules laaye hain April 1, 2026 se, jisse local prices zyada match honge aur valuation clear hoga. Lekin price ki volatility kam nahi hogi.
Aage kya hoga? Analysts gold ko lekar positive hain. Central banks ki buying, dollar se hatne ki koshish, aur supply issues support karenge. Goldman Sachs aur J.P. Morgan toh keh rahe hain ki gold prices late 2026 tak $5,000-$6,000/oz tak ja sakti hain, girawat ke bawajood. Silver ke liye bhi demand ke factors hain, par price targets supply shortages aur Fed rate cuts par depend karte hain. Overall, FY26 ka trend yehi dikhata hai ki investors stocks se nikal kar safe assets mein ja rahe hain kyunki duniya uncertain hai. Lekin commodity prices aur global politics ke changes se aage ka outlook thoda complex hai.