Whalesbook
Toh hua yun ki, US ne temporary sanctions hataye hain, jiske baad India ne Iran se 7 saal baad wapas crude oil kharidna start kar diya hai. Official reports keh rahi hain ki refiners ne Iran se oil buy kar liya hai, aur payment ki bhi tension nahi hai. Ye kabse nahi ho raha tha? Last time humne May 2019 mein Iran se oil liya tha. Abhi kya chal raha hai? Middle East mein jab tension badhi hai aur global supply chain mein gadbad ho rahi hai, tab ye move energy security ke liye kaafi important hai.
Ye jo wapas import shuru hua hai na, ye US ke 30-day waiver ki wajah se ho raha hai, jo April 19 tak valid hai. Iska maqsad global crude prices ko thoda control karna hai, kyunki Middle East ke conflicts ke karan prices bhag rahe hain. Ye waiver market mein lagbhag 140 million barrels tak Iranian oil la sakta hai, lekin sirf woh jo already transit mein hai, naya production nahi. Abhi market mein kaafi volatility hai, kyunki Brent crude prices pichle kuch hafton mein hi lagbhag 39% badh gaye hain.
India waise bhi apni energy security ke liye 40 se zyada suppliers par depend karta hai, taaki kisi ek country par bharosa na rahe. Iran historically India ka second-largest oil supplier raha hai, sanctions lagne se pehle 2018 mein. US ke JCPOA se nikalne ke baad, 2019 tak imports band ho gaye the. Abhi China Iran oil ka sabse bada buyer bana hua hai. Ye sab dikhata hai ki kaise desh apni energy strategy ko reconsider kar rahe hain.
Par ek dikkat wali baat bhi hai. Ek Iranian LPG shipment aayi hai jo 'sanctioned vessel' par thi. Ye wale ships aksar 'shadow fleet' ka hissa hote hain, jismein purane, poorly maintained ships hote hain, jinka ownership aur insurance bhi clear nahi hota. Inse sanctions bypass karne ki koshish hoti hai. Iske saath hi payment mein bhi challenges aa rahi hain, kyunki Iran SWIFT se bahar hai. Agar sanctions wapas lag gaye ya conflict badha, toh ye import routes band ho sakte hain.
Toh overall, India apni energy security ko lekar kaafi proactive hai. US ka ye temporary waiver kuch relief de raha hai, par long-term success toh global relations aur sanctions par hi depend karega. Middle East ki tension abhi energy markets ko hila rahi hai, isliye India ko apni strategy mein adapt karte rehna padega.