Whalesbook
HZL ka super ambitious growth plan!
Hindustan Zinc (HZL) ne ek dum bold plan banaya hai – 2030 tak refined metal capacity ko lagbhag double karna. Target hai refined zinc ka capacity 1.59 million tonnes aur lead ka 410,000 tonnes tak pahunchana. Upar se, silver output bhi 1,500 tonnes per year tak pahunchane ka aim hai.
Is bade game-changer plan ke liye company agle 3 se 5 saalon mein ₹30,000 se ₹35,000 crore ka capital expenditure karne wali hai. Ismein Debari smelter ke expansion par hi ₹12,000 crore lagane ka plan hai, jo 36 mahine mein complete ho jayega. Ye sab India mein metals ki badhti demand ko dekhte hue kiya ja raha hai.
Company ke shares bhi pichhle saal S&P BSE 100 index se 30% zyada badhe hain aur abhi around ₹590-605 ke level par trade kar rahe hain. Pure company ki valuation lagbhag ₹2.5 trillion ho gayi hai.
Valuation aur competitors ka kya scene hai?
Currently, HZL ka valuation trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings ka 20-22 times chal raha hai, jo normally se kaafi upar hai (historical average 13-15 times tha). Lekin company ka Return on Equity (ROE) 70-76% aur ROCE 50-60% hai, jo ki bahut hi strong numbers hain.
India mein NALCO aur Hindalco jaise competitors hain, par zinc mining mein HZL ka hi raj hai, 75% domestic market share ke saath. Pehle company apne high dividend yield (4.9% to 6.28%) ke liye famous thi, par ab growth pe zyada focus karne se future dividends mein fark pad sakta hai.
Kuch valuation models ke according, HZL ka intrinsic value ₹427.32 ke aas paas ho sakta hai, jo current market price se kam hai. Toh matlab, market mein future growth kaafi had tak already price mein include ho chuka hai.
Silver prices ka HZL par super impact!
HZL ke profits ke liye silver prices ekdum critical factor hain. Lagbhag 45% earnings 2026 tak silver se aane ka estimate hai. Pata hai, silver prices 131.20% year-on-year badh kar $77.23 USD/t.oz (April 24, 2026 tak) ho gaye the. Global prices bhi 2026 mein $81/oz tak ja sakte hain.
Ye surge accha hai kyunki record profits aa rahe hain, par isme bada risk bhi hai. Silver ka supply demand se seedha linked nahi hota, isliye prices bahut volatile hote hain. Jab prices high hote hain toh zabardast profit aata hai, par girne par earnings ka risk bhi badh jaata hai.
Demerger ki kahani?
HZL ka business demerger, jo 2023 mein government ki concerns ki wajah se ruka tha, woh phir se start ho sakta hai. Boss, parent Vedanta bhi apna demerger kar rahi hai – jismein 5 alag companies banengi. Vedanta ka record date May 1, 2026 hai.
Is corporate restructuring se HZL ke ownership mein changes aa sakte hain ya uski standalone valuation alag se ho sakti hai. Indian government ka HZL mein 27.92% stake hai, aur unki purani concerns phir se aa sakti hain.
Investors ke liye Key Risks
Growth plan toh tagda hai, par kuch risks bhi hain. Expansion ke liye bada capex aur execution mein challenges aa sakti hain. Profitability ka silver prices par depend hona ek bada risk factor hai. Pichhle 5 saalon mein HZL ka earnings growth sirf 3.6% raha hai, jo industry average 21.5% se kaafi kam hai. Debt-to-Equity ratio 0.69 hai, toh thoda leverage bhi hai.
Analysts kya bol rahe hain?
Analysts ka opinion mila-jula hai. Kuch brokers 'Buy' rating de rahe hain aur target ₹890 tak de rahe hain, jabki kuch 'Neutral' ya 'Sell' bol rahe hain, target ₹385 tak. Average price targets ₹626.71 aur ₹745.67 ke beech hain.
Next fiscal year mein EPS ₹31.03 aur revenue ₹119.03 billion tak ho sakta hai. Fiscal 2027 ke liye refined metal 1.1 million tonnes aur silver 680 tonnes ka production guide kiya hai HZL ne. Next 3 saalon mein revenue 14% CAGR se grow hone ka estimate hai.