Whalesbook
Market Samjhauta Kar Raha Hai?
Dekho bhai, sona aur chandi ke prices Friday ko thode down dikhe. COMEX gold 0.71% gir kar $4,783.70 per ounce pe trade ho raha tha, aur silver bhi 1.17% neeche aa kar $75.54 pe pahunch gaya. Yeh isliye hua kyunki investors ab safe-haven ki demand ko thoda reassess kar rahe hain.
Asal mein, US aur Iran ke beech ek ceasefire chal raha hai, toh lag raha tha ki tension kam hogi. Lekin yeh ceasefire kitna tikega, yeh koi pakka nahi keh sakta. Aur upar se duniya bhar se mixed signals aa rahe hain.
Asian markets mein thodi si tezi thi, MSCI Asia-Pacific index 0.5% badha tha, jo dikhata hai ki log thoda risk lene ko taiyar ho rahe hain. Par yeh bhi zyada bada jump nahi tha. Market abhi bhi Israel aur Lebanon ke beech chal rahe tensions ko closely follow kar raha hai. Experts keh rahe hain ki gold ka yeh reaction dikhata hai ki market ek balance banane ki koshish kar raha hai – ek taraf toh turant wali tension kam ho gayi, par uncertainty abhi bhi hai.
VT Markets ke Ross Maxwell ne bola ki jab geopolitical tensions kam hoti hain, toh gold aksar neeche aata hai kyunki log riskier assets ki taraf dekhte hain. Lekin unhone ye bhi warning di ki yeh ceasefire bahut fragile lag raha hai, aur agar koi violation hui toh phir se safe-haven ki demand badh sakti hai.
Inflation Ka Darr, Price Ko Bachata Hua
Ab baat karte hain inflation ki. Yeh jo tensions thodi kam hui, uske baad bhi inflation ka dar abhi gaya nahi hai. Strait of Hormuz mein disruptions aur crude oil prices jo $96 ke aas paas hain, woh toh inflation ko aur badha rahe hain. Yehi sabse bada reason hai jo gold market ko support de raha hai.
Aur yeh badhti hui inflation US Federal Reserve ke liye bhi problem hai. Unko interest rates ka kya karna hai, woh samajh nahi aa raha. Core PCE price index jaise data jo 0.4% se badh rahe hain, woh yahi bata rahe hain ki rates shayad lambe time tak high rahenge. Aur jab yields high hote hain, toh gold jaise assets jisme koi yield nahi milta, woh thode kam attractive ho jaate hain. US 10-year Treasury yield 4.28% ke aas paas tha, aur dollar index bhi thoda upar gaya.
Ross Maxwell ka kehna hai ki gold ka future abhi incoming inflation data aur geopolitical khabron par depend karega. Agar ceasefire tik gaya aur inflation bhi badhti rahi, toh gold neeche ja sakta hai. Lekin agar tensions phir se badhi ya inflation kam hui, toh gold ko support mil sakta hai. Overall, short term mein gold ek range mein hi rahega, matlab bahut zyada upar ya neeche jaane ki bajaye thoda fluctuate karega.