Whalesbook
Inflation Fears Ka Pressure High!
Sun rahe ho? 3 April 2026 ko precious metals market mein ek dum se saaf-safaai ho gayi. Gold aur silver ke prices gir gaye, woh bhi tab jab Iran mein tensions badh rahe the. Aisa laga jaise investors ne geopolitical safety ko side-line kar diya aur seedha inflation ki chinta mein lag gaye. Is wajah se spot gold $4,630.7 per ounce tak gir gaya, aur silver toh aur bhi zyada neeche $71.4 per ounce par aa gaya. Yeh ek unusual move tha, kyunki usually jab tensions badhte hain toh safe-haven assets upar jaate hain.
Yeh sab President Trump ke ek speech ke baad hua, jismein unhone Iran mein lambi involvement aur 'significant strikes' ki dhamki di. Isse market mein inflation ko lekar fears aur badh gaye, aur Brent Crude oil ka price $112 barrel ke paar pahunch gaya. Saath hi, logo ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bhi doubt karna shuru kar diya, jisne US 10-Year Treasury yields ko 4.38% tak pahuncha diya. Aur upar se, US Dollar Index (DXY) bhi strong ho gaya, jisne dollar mein trade hone wale commodities ko aur pressure mein daal diya. Latest inflation data ne bhi yeh chinta badha di; February mein CPI 2.4% tha YoY, aur March mein yeh 3.2% tak ja sakta hai, mainly badhti energy costs ki wajah se. Fed abhi rates ko stable rakhe hue hai aur 2026 mein bas kuch hi rate cuts ki soch raha hai, jo gold aur silver jaise assets ke liye tough conditions create karta hai jin par koi interest nahi milta.
India ke MCX exchange par bhi yeh fall dikha. Silver prices lagbhag 5.6% gir kar ₹2,29,888 per kg par band hue, aur gold bhi 2.3% neeche ₹1,50,145 per 10 gm par aa gaya. International level par bhi gold 2.54% gir kar $4,630.7 per ounce par trade kar raha tha. Yeh giri koi choti nahi thi, kyunki March mein hi bullion 12% se zyada gri thi, jo ki 2008 ke Global Financial Crisis ke baad sabse bada monthly drop tha. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) ETF bhi 4.43% neeche $63.55 par chala gaya tha.
Aisa nahi hai ki geopolitical events hamesha gold ko boost karte hain. Yaad hai, 2022 mein Russia-Ukraine war ke time pehle gold bhaga tha, par baad mein inflation aur rate hike ki expectations heavy pad gayi thi. Yahan tak ki 9/11 jaise events ke baad bhi market response mein time laga tha. Abhi analysts ko lag raha hai ki gold aur silver mein aur weakness dikh sakti hai. Main reason hai persistent inflation, jo Middle East se energy supply mein disruption ki wajah se aur badh sakti hai. Agar aisa hua toh Fed ko rates ko zyada time tak high rakhna padega ya badhana bhi pad sakta hai, jisse US Dollar aur strong hoga aur borrowing costs badhenge. Technical charts par bhi figures achhe nahi hain; gold $4,700 ka support level tod chuka hai, aur silver bhi 100-day moving average ke neeche trade kar raha hai. Silver ke liye immediate support $68.00 par hai, aur girne ka risk hai.
Par haan, ek hope hai! 19 April ko India mein Akshaya Tritiya aa rahi hai, jo gold demand ko boost kar sakti hai. Jewelers ko lagta hai ki agar prices kam rahe toh sales badh sakti hain, bhale hi log kam weight ke items buy karein. Analysts jaise Divya Mandaliya (Anand Rathi) ka kehna hai ki gold ke liye $4,460 aur $4,360 par support hai, aur $4,800 par resistance. Aksha Kamboj (India Bullion & Jewellers Association) is drop ko ek positive trend mein profit-taking maanti hain aur unka kehna hai ki market volatility physical buying ko encourage karti hai. Kuch strategists toh keh rahe hain ki dips par gold aur ETFs buy karne ka mauka hai aur central bank buying ke wajah se ek rebound aa sakta hai, chahe abhi challenges dikh rahe hon.