Asal mein, ye giraawat do sides se aa rahi hai. Ek toh India mein jo chunav ke natije aa rahe hain, usse investors thoda soch samajh kar chal rahe hain. Doosra, global market mein US dollar kaafi strong ho gaya hai, jo gold aur silver jaise commodities par pressure bana raha hai.
Jab dollar strong hota hai, toh dollar mein trade hone wale commodities, jaise gold, doosri currencies wale logon ke liye mehenga ho jaata hai. Isliye demand kam ho jaati hai. Waise toh Middle East mein tensions chal rahi hain jo gold ko support karti hain, par dollar ki taakat usse zyada bhaari pad rahi hai. Crude oil prices bhi thode stable hain, par shayad peak inflation wali baat ab khatam ho rahi hai, toh gold ka 'inflation hedge' wala role bhi thoda kam ho gaya hai. Crude oil $100 barrel ke niche aa gaya hai.
Pehle kya hota tha ki India mein jab bhi koi badi political uncertainty aati thi, toh log gold mein invest karte the 'safe haven' ke taur par. Lekin abhi global economic factors, khaas kar ye strong dollar wala trend, zyada impact kar raha hai. Analysts bol rahe hain ki agar inflation aise hi control mein rahi aur Fed ne interest rates badhane ka signal diya, toh gold par aur pressure aa sakta hai. Silver toh aur bhi volatile hai, ye speculative demand aur industrial use dono se chalati hai. Kuch analysts silver ko $30-$32 tak bhi jaate dekh rahe hain.
MCX Gold futures aaj ₹800 gir kar lagbhag ₹72,000 per 10 grams par aa gaye hain. Wahi, silver futures mein ₹1,500 ki girawat dekhne ko mili hai, jisse ye ₹85,000 per kg par pahunch gaye hain. Global spot prices bhi is trend ko follow kar rahe hain, gold $2350 per ounce aur silver $28.50 per ounce ke aas paas hain.
Aage kya ho sakta hai? Log abhi India election results par nazar rakhe hue hain, par sabse bada focus dollar aur inflation data par rahega. Agar dollar aur strong hua ya inflation kam hui, toh gold par aur dabav aa sakta hai. Silver bhi gold ke saath hi chalega, par industrial demand ka bhi asar rahega. Kuch analysts gold ka key resistance level $2500 aur support level $2300 maan rahe hain.
