Whalesbook
Ab sawaal aata hai, aage kya? Analysts bol rahe hain ki gold abhi aur upar ja sakta hai. COMEX par gold $5,500 se $6,000 tak ja sakta hai, aur MCX futures mein Rs 2 lakh per 10 grams ka target bhi nazar aa raha hai agle 12 mahine mein. Long term mein, late 2026 tak $6,000 per ounce cross ho sakta hai. Iska support central banks ki consistent buying se mil raha hai, jo har quarter average 585 tonnes kharid rahe hain.
Toh bhai, ye demand itni high kyu hai? Pehla reason toh hai central banks, jo saal bhar mein 700-900 tonnes tak kharidne ka plan kar rahe hain. Dusra, West Asia mein chal rahi tensions jaisi geopolitical instability gold ko 'safe haven' banati hai. Upar se, U.S. dollar bhi thoda weak chal raha hai, jo gold ke liye acha hai. Global debt aur stock market ke fluctuations se bachne ke liye bhi log gold ki taraf bhag rahe hain. Aur haan, mining production kam hone se supply-demand ka gap bhi badh gaya hai.
Par bhai, har chamakti cheez sona nahi hoti. Kuch risks bhi hain. Agar U.S. Federal Reserve ne interest rates aur badhaye toh dollar strong ho sakta hai aur gold ka appeal kam ho sakta hai. Jo conflicts chal rahe hain, agar woh khatm hue toh gold ka 'fear premium' kam ho sakta hai. India mein, wapas 15% import duty lagne se physical demand kam hui hai aur domestic premium bana hai, jis wajah se log digital gold ya ETFs ki taraf ja rahe hain. Experts ka kehna hai ki abhi market mein sentiment bahut high hai, isliye ekdum se bada paisa lagana risky ho sakta hai. Behtar hai ki 10-15% portfolio ko gold mein staggered tareeke se invest karein, stability ke liye.