Whalesbook
Toh scene kya hai? Jab U.S. Dollar Index 99 ke level se neeche gir gaya, toh gold ko ekdum se pump mil gaya. Aisa isliye kyunki jab dollar weak hota hai, toh gold baaki sabke liye cheaper ho jata hai, aur demand badh jaati hai.
Middle East mein bhi jo tension chal rahi hai, usse bhi gold ko safe haven maan kar log buy kar rahe hain. Haalanki U.S. President ne thoda de-escalation ka ishara diya hai, par phir bhi situation unstable hai.
Crude oil prices bhi thoda neeche aayi hain, WTI $102.43 ke aas paas aur Brent $110 se neeche. Isse inflation ki worries kam hui hain, jo gold ke liye generally achha hai kyunki gold interest nahi deta.
Ab aate hain analysts ke views par. Sab log 2026 ke liye same page par nahi hain. JPMorgan ne apna 2026 ka average gold price target $5,243 an ounce se badha kar $5,708 kiya tha, par ab unhone use adjust kiya hai. Reuters ke 31 analysts ka median forecast $4,916 per ounce hai, jo pehle se zyada hai, par phir bhi range kafi badi hai. Kuch log $4,500 se kam aur kuch $6,300 se zyada expect kar rahe hain. Matlab confusion hai ki rally kitni tikegi.
Dollar ka impact toh seedha hai. Jab dollar index (DXY) 98.9 ke kareeb hai, toh gold par pressure kam rehta hai. Agar dollar strong hua, toh gold par pressure aega.
Inflation aur interest rates ka bhi scene complicated hai. Oil prices se inflation ki tension thodi kam hui hai, par pichhle teen mahine ki high energy prices abhi bhi impact kar rahi hain. Agar inflation high rehti hai, toh log gold ko hedge ke liye buy karte hain. Par agar central banks interest rates high rakhte hain, toh gold hold karne ka cost badh jata hai, aur interest dene wale investments zyada attractive ho jate hain.
Toh rally mein rukawat kya aa sakti hai? Analysts ka wide gap of opinion, Middle East mein peace, dollar ka fir se strong hona, aur investor demand ka kam hona – yeh sab gold ki rally ko slow kar sakte hain. Mining stocks jaise Newmont Mining (NEM) ke liye, P/E 14.2 achha lag raha hai, par PEG ratio 1.52 thoda overvalued ka signal de raha hai. Matlab, gold toh theek hai, par mining companies par nazar rakhni padegi.
Aage kya hoga? Gold abhi dollar aur geopolitical worries ki wajah se strong hai. Par future mein inflation trends, central bank policies aur dollar ka direction decide karega ki gold kahan jayega.