Whalesbook
Dekho bhaiyo, global market mein aaj gold thoda neeche aaya hai, prices kareeb $4,705 per ounce par chal rahe hain. Iske peeche sabse bada reason hai Middle East mein badhti hui tension aur US dollar ka strong hona.
Global level pe prices thoda gire hain, par Bharat mein situation alag hai. Yahan gold prices Dubai rates ke comparison mein abhi bhi kaafi premium par hain. Yeh dikhata hai ki India mein demand kitni zabardast hai aur govt policies ka bhi kitna asar hai.
Aaj ki baat karein toh, India mein 24K gold 10 gram ka rate hai lagbhag ₹151,990. Dubai mein yahi rate around AED 580.50 per gram hai, matlab ₹116,000 ke aas paas 10 gram ka. Toh dekh lo, difference aa raha hai ₹6,000 se ₹7,900 per 10 gram ka, yani 4% se zyada! Is premium ka main reason hai India ki 6% gold import duty (5% Basic Customs Duty + 1% AIDC). Duty kam hui hai, par abhi bhi import cost badha rahi hai. Aur bhaiyo, shaadiyon ka season aur festivals toh chal hi rahe hain, jisse demand hamesha high rehti hai.
Middle East mein jo tensions badh rahi hain, khaas kar US aur Iran ke beech, woh gold price girne ka ek bada karan ban rahi hain. Strait of Hormuz band hone ki worries energy supply aur inflation ko lekar hain. Isse market mein uncertainty badhi hai aur Fed rate cuts ko lekar expectations bhi change ho rahi hain. Upar se US dollar bhi tez ho gaya hai, jo dollar mein priced gold ko aur pressure mein dalta hai. Halanki, conflict ke waqt gold ko safe haven mana jata hai, par analysts keh rahe hain ki agar ye conflict lamba chala toh prices monetary policy se zyada influence honge. Gold prices conflict shuru hone ke baad se lagbhag 10-11% gir chuke hain.
Aur ek interesting baat! India mein gold ETFs mein record inflows aaye hain. FY26 mein ₹68,867 crore aa gaye hain, jo pichhle saal se 364% zyada hain. Ye geopolitical risks aur uncertainty ke khilaaf hedge karne ke liye investors ka interest dikhata hai. ICICI Prudential Gold ETF aur Nippon India Gold BeES jaise ETFs popular hain.
Abhi gold ko inflation aur turmoil se bachne ka tareeka mante hain, par kuch risks bhi hain. Agar Middle East tension aur badhi toh oil prices badhte rahenge, inflation badhegi aur central banks interest rates high rakh sakti hain. Aisa mein bina interest dene wala gold thoda kam attractive ho jata hai. Strong dollar bhi ek bada challenge hai. Aur India mein import duty mein koi bhi change demand ko affect kar sakta hai. Kuch investors profit book karne ke liye ya cash ki need mein share bech sakte hain, jisse prices mein short-term girawat aa sakti hai.
Analysts expect kar rahe hain ki gold prices aane wale time mein ek range mein hi trade karenge. Support $4,700 ke aas paas aur resistance $4,895 par hai. MCX gold June futures ₹150,000 se ₹152,400 ke beech reh sakte hain. Goldman Sachs jaise firms 2026 ke end tak gold ko $5,400 per ounce tak bhi dekh rahe hain, jo India mein ₹1.7-1.9 lakh per 10 gram hoga. Lekin ye sab depend karta hai central bank ki buying par aur interest rate cuts par. Filhal toh US-Iran conflict, Fed decisions aur dollar ka movement hi prices ko drive karega.