Whalesbook
MCX par gold futures ab ₹1.50 lakh per 10 grams ke neeche trade kar rahe hain. MCX gold May futures ₹1,48,649 par aa gaye hain, jabki spot gold bhi $4,590 per ounce ke low par hai. Silver ne thoda better performance dikhaya hai, MCX silver May futures ₹2,38,578 per kilogram par hain aur spot silver $73.48 per ounce par.
Is girawat ka main reason hai badhti hui inflation. West Asia mein jo tensions hain, uski wajah se crude oil ke prices boom kar rahe hain, aur yehi cheez inflation ko aur bhadka rahi hai. Jab inflation badhta hai, toh gold jaisa asset jo koi interest nahi deta, woh investors ko kam attractive lagne lagta hai. Iske ilawa, central banks jaise US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), aur Bank of England, sab high interest rates ko lambe time tak maintain rakhne ka signal de rahe hain. Jab interest rates zyada hote hain, toh log bonds ya savings accounts mein paisa lagana pasand karte hain jahan interest milta hai, isliye gold ka traditional safe-haven appeal bhi kamzor pad raha hai. Gold ka strong dollar se bhi risk badh raha hai.
Technical charts bhi gold ke liye zyada achhe nahi dikh rahe. Prices $4,650 per ounce ke neeche jaakar $4,550 ke support ko test kar sakti hain, aur silver bhi $73 per ounce ke neeche ja sakta hai. Other precious metals ka mix response hai: platinum $1,946.60 par hai (jo 0.62% down tha) aur palladium $1,452 par (jo 1.22% down tha). Haalanki, long term mein JPMorgan Global Research ko umeed hai ki gold $5,000/oz tak pahunch sakta hai late 2026 tak, aur ₹6,000/oz tak bhi. ETFs mein bhi achha inflow aa raha hai, khaas kar Asia se (62 tons in Q1 2026), haalanki March mein Western markets se kuch outflow hua tha. Retail investors ko GLD (0.40%) aur IAU (0.25%) jaise ETFs ke expense ratio ka bhi dhyan rakhna chahiye.
Basically, ab gold sirf 'safe haven' nahi raha. Geopolitical risks toh hain, lekin high interest rates aur strong dollar uske appeal ko ghatane mein lage hain. Prices ka ₹1.50 lakh ke neeche jaana ye dikhata hai ki market mein gold ka role ab thoda change ho gaya hai, aur woh interest rate changes se zyada affect ho raha hai. Silver jo industrial use mein aata hai, woh bhi economic uncertainty se affect ho sakta hai.