Whalesbook
Rate Cut Ki Aas Ne Gold Ko Chadhaaya
Wednesday ko sone aur chandi dono mein tezi dikhi. Asal mein, US mein retail sales data thoda dheela aaya, jisse logon ko lag raha hai ki America ki Federal Reserve (Fed) ab interest rates kam kar sakti hai. Jab rates kam hone ki ummeed banti hai toh US Treasury yields bhi gir jaate hain, aur gold jaisi cheezon mein paisa lagana zyaada attractive ho jaata hai. Abhi market ko lag raha hai ki Fed June tak kam se kam do baar 25-basis-point rates kam kar sakti hai. Isiliye, spot gold $5,044.95 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai aur silver bhi $81.25 ke level par wapas pakda hai. US 10-year Treasury yields bhi 4.15%-4.22% par aa gaye hain.
India Mein Bhi Sone Ki Khareedari Bandi
India mein bhi log gold ki taraf bhaag rahe hain. January mein gold ETFs mein paisa aane ka record bana hai, lagbhag ₹24,040 crore aaye hain! Yeh equity funds mein aaye paison ke kareeb hai. Global tensions aur portfolio ko diversify karne ki wajah se investors gold ko safe bet maan rahe hain. Silver ETFs mein bhi assets badhe hain. Asal mein, 2026 mein ab tak gold sabse accha perform karne wala asset raha hai, 16% tak returns diye hain. Silver ne bhi 10% returns diye hain, lekin gold abhi bhi aage hai.
Par Fed Wale Bole 'Abhi Koi Jaldi Nahi!'
Lekin Fed officials sabko remind kar rahe hain ki rate cut ki itni jaldi nahi hai. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack ne kaha hai ki central bank ko rates badalne ki koi 'urgency' nahi hai. Unka kehna hai ki inflation abhi bhi 2% ke target se 'too high' hai aur is saal 3% ke aas-paas reh sakta hai. Isliye, Fed abhi economic data ka wait karega, khaaskar non-farm payrolls aur inflation reports ka. Policy ka path abhi bhi uncertain hai.
Aage Kya?
Abhi gold ki price aane wale economic data aur Fed ki baaton par depend karegi. Analysts keh rahe hain ki agar rate cut ki ummeed bani rahi toh gold $5,000/oz ko bhi paar kar sakta hai 2026 ke end tak. Lekin agar inflation data garam aaya ya US economy strong rahi, toh rate cut ki baatein kamzor pad sakti hain aur gold par pressure aa sakta hai.