Whalesbook
Gold Mein Ajeeb Rally Kyun?
Dekho, Gold ne March ke low se lagbhag $700 recovery dikhai hai. Middle East mein thoda shaanti ka mahaul bana toh log soch rahe hain ki sab theek ho jayega. Lekin market ka reaction thoda hatke hai.
Gold Ab Risk Asset Jaisa Chal Raha Hai?
April 9th ko spot gold $4,791 ke level pe trade kar raha tha, matlab din bhar mein lagbhag 1.5% ka jump! Yeh sab tab hua jab Israel ne Lebanon se baat karne ki willingness dikhai aur Brent crude oil thoda shaant hua. US Dollar Index bhi thoda neeche aaya aur US Treasury yields bhi kam hue. Normally, yeh sab Gold ke liye positive hota hai. Par experts bol rahe hain ki yeh rally asli safe-haven ki wajah se nahi, balki short covering aur bargain hunting se chal rahi hai. Matlab, gold abhi risk asset ki tarah behave kar raha hai.
Central Banks Khareed Rahe Hain, Lekin Inflation Ka Kya?
China ki People's Bank of China (PBOC) toh lagbhag 5 tons gold March mein bhi kharida hai, yeh toh 17th mahine se chal raha hai. Yeh unki reserve diversification strategy hai, short-term price se alag. Goldman Sachs aur JPMorgan jaise bade players toh Gold ka target $5,400 se $6,300 tak de rahe hain 2026 tak ke liye, central bank buying aur geopolitical risks ko dekh kar.
Lekin bhai, sabse bada tension hai persistent inflation. February mein PCE price index 2.8% year-on-year badha, aur core PCE 3.0% raha. Yeh Fed ke 2% target se kaafi upar hai. Is inflation ke karan Fed rates ko uncha rakh sakta hai, jo Gold ke liye acha nahi hota.
Kya Yeh Rally Tikegi?
Is rally ka future thoda unclear hai. Israel-Iran ceasefire fragile hai, aur oil prices agar badhe toh inflation aur badhegi. Isse Fed ko interest rate cuts postpone karne pad sakte hain, jisse dollar strong hoga aur bond yields badhenge, jo Gold ke liye headwind hai. UK jobless claims 219,000 tak pahunch gaye hain April 4th week mein, jo slowdown ka sign hai, par inflation data Fed ko rate cuts se rok sakta hai.