Whalesbook
Yaar, 29 April 2026 ko sone ke bhav mein bada confusing scenario tha. Sabse pehle toh crude oil prices mein jabardast jump aaya. Iska reason tha Iran ports par blockade aur Strait of Hormuz mein chal rahi tensions. Jab oil mahnga hota hai, toh sabhi cheezein mahngi ho jaati hain, matlab inflation ka dar badh jaata hai. Aur jab inflation badhti hai, toh log safe-haven asset, matlab Sona (Gold) ki taraf bhagte hain, taaki paisa save rahe aur value bani rahe. Us din international spot gold prices lagbhag $4,600 per ounce ke aas paas chal rahi thi, ye is demand ko dikha raha tha.
Rate Hike Ka Tension
Lekin yahan ek twist tha! Ye jo inflation badhne ka dar tha na, isse central banks ki tension badh gayi. Central banks jaise US Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England aur Bank of Canada, jab dekhte hain ki inflation control se bahar ho rahi hai, toh woh interest rates badha dete hain ya unhe high rakhte hain. Ab gold toh bina yield wala asset hai, matlab us par koi interest nahi milta. Jab rates badhte hain, toh log gold ki jagah bonds jaisi cheezon mein invest karte hain jahan interest milta hai. Isse gold hold karne ka cost bhi badh jaata hai. Toh ek taraf inflation gold ko support kar raha tha, wahi doosri taraf rate hike ki expectation usko neeche khich rahi thi.
India Mein Sone Ka Premium Aur Fed Ki Policy
Ab India ki baat karein toh yahan toh sone ka bhav global rates se kaafi upar chal raha tha. 24K gold ₹150,467 per 10 grams tak pahunch gaya, jabki Dubai mein ye sirf ₹141,839 tha. Matlab lagbhag 6.08% ka premium tha. Isse local demand ka pata chalta hai. Aur baaki duniya mein, US Federal Reserve ne lagbhag confirm kar diya tha ki woh teesri baar consecutive meeting mein interest rates ko 3.5%-3.75% ke beech hi rakhenge, matlab abhi rate cut ki umeed kam thi. Ye sab sign de raha tha ki rates abhi high rehne wale hain.
Dollar Aur ETF Ka Asar
Global level pe dekha jaye toh gold prices April 2026 ke end mein $4,600 per ounce ke neeche consolidate ho rahi thi. Iska reason tha strong U.S. dollar, badhte Treasury yields aur central bank policy ke signals. Safe-haven demand par in cheezon ka asar zyada dikh raha tha. Indian Gold ETFs mein Q1 2026 mein toh kaafi paisa aaya, par March mein thoda kam ho gaya. Log abhi bhi gold ko ek diversifier ke tarah dekh rahe hain.
Aage Kya Ho Sakta Hai?
Abhi gold investors ke liye risks kaafi hain. Strong dollar aur rising yields gold hold karne ka cost badha rahe hain aur Fed ke rates high rehne ke chances zyada hain. Agar Middle East mein tensions kam ho gayi toh gold ka safe-haven appeal bhi khatam ho sakta hai, jisse prices gir sakti hain. Pichle din, April 28 ko bhi gold three-week lows par gir gaya tha. Kuch analysts toh keh rahe hain ki agar current support levels toote toh gold $3,400 per ounce tak bhi ja sakta hai. Market lagbhag expect kar rahi hai ki central banks inflation control ko zyada importance denge rate cut se pehle. Toh, short term mein gold ki price is baat par depend karegi ki central bank kya bolte hain, geopolitical situation kaisi rehti hai aur dollar kitna strong hota hai. Year-end 2026 ke liye kuch log $4,900 se $5,500 per ounce tak ka target bhi de rahe hain, jo central bank buying aur de-dollarization jaise factors par depend karta hai.