Whalesbook
Arey suno, March mein food prices ka game phir se hua hai. FAO Food Price Index 128.5 points par pahunch gaya hai, jo February se 2.4% aur pichle saal se 1% zyada hai. Iske peeche ka sabse bada reason? Energy prices ka toofani tezi se badhna, jo Near East mein chal rahe tensions ki wajah se hai. Brent crude oil $112 ke paar chala gaya, sabse bada monthly jump dikhaya. WTI bhi bhaga hai, kyunki Strait of Hormuz mein supply rukne ka dar hai. Is energy shock ne poore supply chain mein inflation badha diya hai.
Aur ye energy crisis sirf petrol tak nahi rukti, farmers ke liye toh double trouble hai. Fertilizer prices aasman chhoo rahi hain. Urea prices February end se lagbhag 50% badh gayi hain, $400-$490 se $700 tak pahunch gayi hain. DAP aur MAP fertilizers 30% se zyada upar gaye hain. March mein hi urea $674/ton aur anhydrous fertilizer $1,000/ton ke paar pahunch gaya, jo ek saal mein pehli baar hua hai. Ye sab natural gas ke mehenge hone ki wajah se hai, jo fertilizers ka main ingredient hai. Farmers ko ab 2026 mein production cost zyada lagne wali hai, guys.
Is pressure ka asar alag alag food commodities par bhi dikh raha hai. Vegetable oil prices 5.1% badh gayi, kyunki crude oil ki demand badh gayi hai. Soybean oil futures bhi kaafi upar pahunche hain. Sugar prices 7.2% chadh gayi, kyunki Brazil zyada sugarcane ko ethanol mein use karne wala hai energy market ki wajah se. Lekin haan, Brazil mein sugar production kam hone ka bhi estimate hai. Cereal prices 1.5% upar gayi hain, especially wheat prices 4.3% badhi hain US Plains mein drought aur Australia mein fertilizer costs ki wajah se. Rice prices thoda neeche aayi hain, 3.0%.
Abhi cereal supply toh theek hai, par agar ye fertilizer prices aise hi chalti rahi toh aage dikkat ho sakti hai. Farmers kam fertilizer use kar sakte hain, ya kam area mein kheti kar sakte hain, jis se future mein yield kam ho jayegi. Bahut se farmers ko 2026 mein nuksan hone ka bhi dar hai, kyunki production cost zyada aur commodity prices utni nahi badh rahi. Geopolitical situation bhi ek risk hai. Toh ye jo abhi prices thoda badh rahi hain, ye aage badi mehngai ka sign ho sakta hai, agar farmers ne kheti kam kar di aur tensions badhti rahi toh.