Whalesbook
Okay, toh ye hua kaise? Saaf hai ki central banks ne apna game plan badal diya hai. 1996 ke baad pehli baar, gold ab central banks ke total reserves ka 20% ban gaya hai, jabki U.S. dollar ka share 46% aur Euro ka 16% hai. 90s mein toh banks gold bech rahe the, ab scenario totally reverse ho gaya hai!
2010 se toh lagataar gold kharidne ka trend chal raha hai, annual net purchases 1,000 tonnes tak pahunchi hain. Reason? Dollar se diversification aur inflation aur geopolitical risks se bachav. World Gold Council ke survey mein 95% banks ka kehna hai ki wo aane wale 12 mahino mein aur gold kharidenge.
Turkey ka special case
Par har jagah same kahani nahi hai. Turkey ki central bank thoda alag kar rahi hai. Unko liquidity chahiye thi, isliye February mein unhone 8 tonnes gold becha, aur March mein lagbhag 50 tonnes tak nikala. Governor ne kaha ki ye temporary use ke liye tha, par currency ko support karne ke liye bhi sale hui.
Baaki countries kya kar rahi hain?
Lekin Turkey ko chhod dein toh baaki countries apna gold kharidna continue kar rahi hain. February mein collective 19 tonnes gold khareeda gaya, jisme Poland ne sabse zyada 20 tonnes liya. Uzbekistan, Czech Republic, Malaysia, China bhi apne reserves mein gold jod rahe hain.
Total central bank buying 2025 mein 863 tonnes thi, jo pichhle record saalon se kam hai, par 2022 se pehle ke levels se kaafi zyada hai. Analysts predict kar rahe hain ki 2026 mein buying thodi kam ho kar 800-850 tonnes ho sakti hai.
Gold Price Outlook
Gold prices mein kaafi upar-neeche dekha gaya. Iran conflict ke baad price gira tha, spot prices $4,482 tak aa gaye, jo peak se 20% kam tha. Phir recover ho kar $4,677 ke aas paas aaye. India mein bhi prices 16.5% gire the, Rs 1,46,091 per 10 grams tak. Par abhi bhi J.P. Morgan jaise analysts ko lagta hai ki 2026 mein gold $5,000 tak ja sakta hai, aur Goldman Sachs $5,400 dekh raha hai. Ye predictions central bank buying aur global uncertainty par based hain.
Risks kya hain?
Haan, kuch risks bhi hain. Turkey ka example dikhata hai ki kabhi-kabhi emergency mein gold bhi bikta hai. Aur Russia bhi apne budget deficit ke liye gold bech raha hai. Agar interest rates badh gaye toh gold thoda less attractive ho sakta hai. Haal hi mein prices ka girna bhi dikhata hai ki ye bhi market ke overall downturns mein affect ho sakta hai.