Whalesbook
Futures aur Spot Price mein zabardast fark!
Asal mein, jo crude oil abhi immediate delivery ke liye available hai, uska price jo futures contracts mein dikh raha hai, usse kaafi upar chala gaya hai. Jis din $141.36 ka level touch kiya, us din June ke Brent crude futures trade ho rahe the $109.03 par. Matlab, spot price futures se lagbhag $32.33 upar tha!
Energy Aspects ki founder Amrita Sen keh rahi hain ki ye futures price ek 'false sense of security' de rahe hain aur asal market ki 'tightness' ko nahi dikha rahe. Yahi baat Chevron ke CEO Mike Wirth bhi keh rahe hain ki Strait of Hormuz band hone se jo supply mein problem aa rahi hai, woh futures price mein reflect nahi ho rahi.
Strait of Hormuz band, supply mein gadbad
Ye saari gadbad Iran mein chal rahe conflict aur Strait of Hormuz ke band hone ki wajah se ho rahi hai. Ye ek bahut important shipping route hai, jisse duniya ka lagbhag 20% oil aur natural gas chalta hai. Ab conflict paanchvein hafte mein hai aur IRGC ne kaha hai ki Strait dushmano ke liye band rahega. Ye 1970s ke energy crisis ke baad sabse bada supply disruption mana ja raha hai, jiske karan tanker traffic bhi kam ho gaya hai.
Energy Companies ka kya hoga?
Is mushkil samay mein alag alag energy companies kaafi volatile conditions face kar rahi hain. April 2026 tak, Chevron ka market cap tha $412.67 billion aur P/E ratio tha 29.8. ExxonMobil ka market cap $676.58 billion aur P/E tha 25.3. Shell ka market cap $266.85 billion aur P/E 15.3 tha. BP ka P/E ratio negative -2,350 tha, jo dikhata hai ki company profitable nahi hai, aur uska market cap $117.92 billion tha.
Market ke risks aur consumers par asar
Spot price aur futures price ke beech itna bada gap market signals par sawal utha raha hai. Halanki Brent futures badhe hain, par abhi bhi pehle ke $120 ke levels se neeche hain. Iska matlab futures risk ko underprice kar rahe hain. Strait of Hormuz ka band hona 1970s se sabse bada energy supply disruption hai, jiski reality futures price se bahut zyada serious hai.
US producers jaise ExxonMobil aur Chevron ko higher prices se fayda ho sakta hai, lekin consumers aur refiners jaise Valero Energy ko higher costs face karne padenge, aur agar conflict chalta raha toh demand bhi gir sakti hai. BP ka negative P/E ratio sector ke alag alag operational challenges dikhata hai.
Future depends on Geopolitics
Traders ab dekhenge ki conflict kam hota hai ya aur badhta hai, tabhi pata chalega ki ye price levels maintain honge ya nahi. UN Security Council bhi Strait ko secure karne ki koshish kar raha hai, lekin result uncertain hai. Agar supply disruption chalta raha, toh spot aur futures prices ka gap aur badh sakta hai.